Ethanol Market Prices Continue to Rise

December 05 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from December 1 to 5, the price of ethanol in China rose to 5,343 CNY/ton, up 1.81% month-on-month and down 1.27% year-on-year. The ethanol market in China showed signs of recovery, with slight variations across regions. The price of raw material corn increased slightly, providing cost support for ethanol prices. Most production enterprises are operating normally, with relatively stable supply. The delivered prices to downstream chemical companies increased, while the demand for liquor remained rigid.

Cost Perspective: From the cost side, corn prices have risen slightly, and ethanol plants are engaging in rigid demand procurement. As a result, the positive factors supporting ethanol costs are weakening.

Supply side, Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huinan is operating normally, Laha is at full production, Bayan, Jixian facility, Zhongke Grene, Shenglong, Wanli, Jilin Dongfeng, Fukan's third and fourth lines, Yushu, Xintianlong, Inner Mongolia Baiyecheng, Henan Houyuan, Hanyong, Huaxing, Sichuan Hongzhan, Shandong Qufeng, East China Huating, Luomait, Anhui Wanshen facilities are operating normally; Longhe and Guannan Xin Guan have shut down; COFCO has switched from edible to fuel. Several enterprises that had previously suspended operations have recently resumed production, which negatively impacts the ethanol supply.

On the demand side, downstream ethyl acetate production has resumed at the Yueyang Changde and Ningxia Ruiyuan plants, while the Yankuang Lunan plant has resumed operations after a brief shutdown. Meanwhile, the Jiangsu Sopu plant has experienced fluctuations in its load, leading to an increase in the ethyl acetate capacity utilization rate. On the ethanol demand side, bearish factors are exerting downward pressure.

Market Forecast: Overall, ethanol analysts expect the short-term ethanol market to remain largely range-bound.