September 7 news
Recently, toluene has been supported by the strengthening of international crude oil and tight spot supply of the two benzenes in China, leading to a strong sentiment among holders to maintain high prices. Overall, prices have remained at high levels. Considering the average difference indicators, the current toluene market is in a relatively strong consolidation phase, with a high probability of short-term high-level fluctuations. Over the medium to long term, within a 1-year cycle, prices are at a moderate level and still have some flexibility. It is necessary to continuously monitor the pace of downstream procurement demand release and the trend of crude oil prices.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Value as of September 6, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of September 5, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 8.67 | 89.33 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 280.66 | 263.67 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 191.00 | 177.83 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of average difference change symbols is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current toluene price trend in China is fluctuating with a bias towards strength.
Reason: The changes in the three differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for oscillation. The combination of signs indicates a stronger consolidation bias. Therefore, the overall trend is oscillatory with a bullish tendency.
4. Position Space Reference
Over the past 60 days, prices over a 3-month period have reached the 5th tier (high level), leaving limited room for short-term upward movement.
1 year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (median), and there is still some room for fluctuation in the medium to long term.
5. Trend chart display
6. Recent Fundamental References
Price Dynamics: On September 1st, the toluene quotation in East China increased by 200 CNY/ton. On September 2nd, the toluene quotation in Shandong region increased by 200 CNY/ton. From September 3rd to 4th, the toluene quotation in Shandong region slightly decreased, generally maintaining a range of 7800-7850 CNY/ton. The quotation in East China maintained a range of 7850-7950 CNY/ton, and the listed price of toluene by Sinopec South China Company remained stable at 8100 CNY/ton.
Supporting factors: International crude oil prices continue to strengthen, and the spot supply of xylene in China remains tight, with holders adopting a firm pricing stance and showing strong reluctance to sell.
Suppressing factors: Downstream continues to maintain a demand-driven procurement pace, with weak purchasing intentions and limited willingness to accept higher prices.
Risk Warning: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
