Large-scale power rationing across the country! Raw materials skyrocket!

Recently, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places have upgraded their “dual control of energy consumption” policies, and the scope of “dual limits” for power curtailment and production is also expanding. Chemical, printing and dyeing, textile, chemical fiber, etc. The industry cannot escape the doom of discontinuation.

Tens of thousands of chemical companies in more than a dozen provinces, cities and regions across the country have suffered suspension of production, leaving many chemical workers unconscious (related reading: shock! Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang chemical provinces are all shut down! Raw materials are in a hurry!), "double control double Which raw materials will be pushed into the critical situation due to the gradual increase of the “restriction”? Have these affected chemicals show the expected upward trend, and what impact will it have on many chemical workers?

Yellow phosphorus: 80% of the national production capacity is restricted, and the price has risen by nearly 300%

At present, the actual production capacity of my country's yellow phosphorus is 1.259 million tons, of which Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guizhou, which are rich in hydropower resources and phosphate rock resources, are the main producing areas. The production capacity of the three provinces is 528,000 tons, 260,000 tons and 178,000 tons respectively. In total, it accounts for 76.7% of the country's total yellow phosphorus production capacity.

The top three companies in terms of yellow phosphorus production capacity are Yunnan Nanlin, Jiangyin Chengxing, and Xingfa Chemical. They are located in Yunnan, Jiangsu, and Hubei, with production capacities of 20, 15 and 123,000 tons, totaling 473,000 tons, accounting for the national yellow phosphorus production capacity. 38% of phosphorus production capacity.

Among them, the second-ranked Jiangyin Chengxing Holding Subsidiary *ST Chengxing announced that its wholly-owned subsidiaries Jiangyin Factory, Xuanwei Factory, Maitreya Factory, and Qinzhou Factory have stopped production and reduced production.

The “dual energy consumption control” policy has a huge impact on the phosphorus chemical industry. Yunnan is a “red light” area where energy consumption does not drop but rises, while Guizhou and Sichuan are areas where energy intensity is not up to standard. These areas are all controlling high energy consumption production. Yunnan even requires a 90% reduction in the production of the yellow phosphorus industry line. . It is conservatively estimated that about 80% of domestic yellow phosphorus production will be affected, and even a huge shortfall in production capacity will occur. The current price of yellow phosphorus is 66,000 CNY/ton, the average weekly price has risen by 55.9%, and the lower price has risen by nearly 300%.

Titanium dioxide: 78% of the country's production capacity is limited, and the price is still high

Recently, Jiangsu has increased its “dual energy consumption control”. Titanium dioxide leader Jinpu Titanium Industry announced that its subsidiaries Nanjing Titanium White Chemical Co., Ltd. and Xuzhou Titanium White Chemical Co., Ltd. have recently received a request from higher-level government departments for “dual energy efficiency control”. It is recommended that enterprises implement measures such as "temporary production restriction" and "temporary suspension of production". Affected by this policy, the production line of Nanjing Titanium White Chemical Co., Ltd. was temporarily restricted, and the production line of Xuzhou Titanium White Chemical Co., Ltd. was temporarily suspended.

In 2020, my country's titanium dioxide production capacity will reach 4.17 million tons. By region, the top three regions in terms of annual output are Sichuan, Shandong, and Anhui, accounting for 21%, 15%, and 12% of the total output.

In terms of production capacity, the largest market share of my country's titanium dioxide industry is Lomon Baili. In recent years, with its mergers and acquisitions of small and medium titanium dioxide companies, it will occupy a market share of 24.22% in 2020. CNNC's titanium dioxide market share ranks second, with a total production capacity of 340,000 tons, accounting for 8.39% of the market share.

At present, some manufacturers in Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangxi have reduced production, and the industry as a whole has started 70%; major factories in Jiangsu and Anhui have reduced production by 4-5% due to environmental protection and power curtailment, and the recovery time is uncertain. It is conservatively estimated that 78% of the country’s titanium dioxide production capacity is restricted. The current rutile type is 18,000-21100 CNY/ton, anatase type is 1,7000-19,000 CNY/ton, and the chlorination method is 21,000-23200 CNY/ton, which are still at historical highs.

Industrial silicon: 70% of the country's production capacity is restricted, a 41.7% increase in the week

Industrial silicon has extremely high power consumption, reaching 12,000 degrees per ton. At the same time, coal also pollutes the environment (desulfurization and denitrification are required). 71.6% of production capacity is distributed in Xinjiang, Yunnan and Sichuan provinces where thermal power and hydropower are relatively developed. my country's total industrial silicon production capacity is 5.06 million tons, accounting for 78% of the world's total production capacity. The top ten industrial silicon production enterprises account for 32.85% of the country's total production capacity. Hesheng Silicon Industry (25.2%), Oriental Hope (4.8%), and Yunnan Yongchang (3.5%) are among the top three.

Yunnan and Xinjiang lit up the “red light” and Sichuan lit up the “yellow light”. There are restrictions on local high-energy-consuming enterprises. Yunnan requires 90% reduction in industrial silicon production. Many enterprises in Sichuan shut down their furnaces and reduce load production. The industry in the southwestern region will be restricted in the dry season, and it is estimated that more than 70% of domestic production capacity will be restricted. The output of industrial silicon will decline, and downstream silicon material companies will enter the peak period of production. The market is in short supply. The current price of industrial silicon is 40088 CNY/ton, an increase of 41.7% during the week. The quotations of individual companies have reached 46,000 CNY/ton, and companies will not sign long-term orders for the time being.

Epoxy resin: 60% of domestic production capacity is restricted, and prices rise by 40%

In terms of regional distribution, my country's epoxy resin production capacity is mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Anhui Huangshan, Shandong, Guangdong and other regions. Jiangsu's epoxy resin production capacity accounts for about 51% of the country's total, ranking first in the country. The production of liquid epoxy resins is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu. Solid epoxy resins are mainly concentrated in the Huangshan area, accounting for 60% of the national solid epoxy resin output.

The first domestic epoxy resin production capacity is Jiangsu Sanmu Company, with a production capacity of approximately 270,000 tons/year, accounting for 12.71%; followed by Kunshan Nanya, with a production capacity of 250,000 tons/year, accounting for 11.77%; Guangdong Hongchang and Changchun The production capacity of Chemical and Yangnong Kumho is about 150,000 tons/year, each accounting for about 7%. Leading companies in the epoxy resin industry, such as Jiangsu Sanmu, Kunshan Nanya, and Yangnong Jinhu, are mostly located in Jiangsu Province. The combined production capacity of the main six companies has reached 1.2 million tons, indicating a high degree of industry concentration.

Regardless of whether it is Jiangsu and Guangdong where the "red light" is lit, or Anhui where the "yellow light" is lit, both are increasing the dual control. It is expected that the epoxy resin industry's production capacity will be reduced by about 60%. In addition, the tight price increase of epichlorohydrin has also contributed to the high price of epoxy resin. The current prices of solid epoxy resins are 31800-32000 CNY/ton, and liquid epoxy resins are quoted at 37500-38200 CNY/ton, both of which remain high, and many companies have closed their quotations.

Epichlorohydrin: 58% of domestic production capacity is restricted, and prices rise by 40%

The production of epichlorohydrin in my country is 624,700 tons, and the production capacity of epichlorohydrin is mainly distributed in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. Among them, Shandong Haili, Jiangsu Haixing, and Jinqiao Yihai have a combined production capacity of 550,000 tons, accounting for the total production capacity of the country. Is 58%. At present, Shandong Haili's 320,000-ton epichlorohydrin plant is in a state of shutdown for remediation, and the restart time is uncertain. The 130,000-ton plant in Jiangsu Haixing was shut down, Jinqiao Yihai was under half load, and after the 321 explosion, the remediation of Jiangsu Chemical Park continued to be under high pressure, and it was difficult to increase the operating rate.

The "dual energy consumption control" is overweight, and most of the Jiangsu area implements the "two on-off and two off" power rations. Local enterprises in Shandong have also reported that they have been notified of power rationing, and the operating rate of enterprises has dropped. Taken together, nearly 58% of the country's epichlorohydrin production capacity is limited. At present, the market starts to be discordant, and the spot supply is still tight. Manufacturers continue to push up and export sales are restricted. Epichlorohydrin is currently quoted at RMB 20,333.33/ton, up 40.55% within the month.

Silicone: 50% of the country's production capacity is limited, and the price hits a 10-year high

From the perspective of enterprise distribution, Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces are my country's main organosilicon enterprises agglomeration; followed by Jiangxi and Hubei.

At present, China's organic silicon industry is mainly composed of Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Co., Ltd., Xingfa Group and Dongyue Silicon Materials as the main manufacturers. In 2020, its organic silicon production capacity market share will be 16.1%, 14.8%, 10.9% and 9.1%, respectively. In terms of output, Hesheng Silicon is still the leader in the organic silicon industry, with an output accounting for 20.3%; followed by Dongyue Silicon, with a market share of 15.5%; Xin'an shares with a market share of 6%; finally, Xingfa Group, The market share reached 5.6%.

As of the end of 2020, my country has a total of 3.375 million tons of organic silicon production capacity, of which Jiangxi Xinghuo and Xin'an Chemical rank first in production capacity, with an organic silicon production capacity of 500,000 tons/year, followed by Dow Corning (Zhangjiagang), with an organic silicon production capacity of 400,000 tons/year . Most of the companies with a relatively large production capacity are located in Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. It is conservatively estimated that 50% of the national production capacity will be restricted.

In addition, affected by the shortage of silicon in the raw material industry, organic silicon products are on the rise. At present, the market price of silicone DMC is 56,000 CNY/ton, a daily increase of 11334 CNY/ton, an increase of 25.7%, and an increase of 18,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 49.33% within the month, and the price has hit a 10-year high. At present, the silicone DMC market is in short supply, and the raw material end is also operating at a high level. In the short term, the market for silicone DMC will continue to operate at a high level.

Soda ash: 32% of the country's production capacity is restricted, and the price rises by 80%

The distribution of domestic soda ash industry enterprises is relatively concentrated, and their production capacity is mainly distributed in Central China, East China, and Northwest China. my country’s soda ash production capacity is 34 million tons, and Jiangsu, Henan, Qinghai, Shandong, Hebei and other provinces are more concentrated. Among them, Jiangsu’s soda ash production capacity is 5.95 million tons, accounting for 17% of the national soda ash production capacity, and Qinghai’s soda ash production capacity is 5.2 million tons, accounting for the national production capacity. 15%. Jiangsu and Qinghai together account for 32%.

There are about 40 domestic soda ash production enterprises, 13 of which have a production capacity of more than 1 million tons/year accounting for 62.83%. my country's soda ash industry has formed Tangshan Sanyou (subsidiary Sanyou Chemical Industry, Qinghai Wucai Soda Industry), China Salt Industry (subsidiary Qinghai Kunlun, Zhongyan Kunshan, Zhongyan Jilantai, Anhui Hongsifang), Henan Jinshan, Inner Mongolia Yuanxing (subsidiary The four major production groups, Zhongyuan Chemical, Tongbai Haijing, and Sunite Alkali, account for 33.4% of the national production capacity, and the leading structure is beginning to appear.

At present, Xinghua, Shaanxi, has reduced load production due to the National Games held, and Jiangsu enterprises have reduced load production due to the dual control of energy consumption. Some manufacturers in Henan, Shandong, Fujian and other regions continue to operate with low production. Most soda ash manufacturers have sufficient orders and lack of overall market inventory. High, the supply side is supporting the market, and about 32% of domestic production capacity is limited. The spot price of soda ash has been raised more than 10 times since the beginning of the year, and has now risen to a high level in the past 10 years. The current market price of heavy soda ash is 2,600 CNY/ton, and the price of light soda ash is 2,400 CNY/ton. Both have increased by more than 80% this year.

Propylene oxide: 31% of the country's production capacity is restricted, and the increase exceeds 1,500 CNY/ton in the month

Recently, Jiangsu has increased its “dual energy consumption control”, and production restrictions have occurred in many places, and the propylene oxide leader Chenhua and Hongbaoli have also announced that they have been affected, and their subsidiaries have stopped production. The delivery time is undetermined.

The regional concentration of my country's propylene oxide industry is relatively high, mainly in East China, and the production capacity of production enterprises accounts for 71% of the country's total production capacity. According to the propylene oxide production capacity of various manufacturers in 2020, the industry's top four markets have a concentration of 37%, which is a low-concentration market.

The main manufacturers are Shandong Xinyue (350,000 tons/year), Jilin Shenhua (300,000 tons/year), Zhenhai Refinery (285,000 tons/year), Shandong Binhua (Zhenhai Refinery (280,000 tons/year) The leading companies in the industry are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong and other places. It is expected that the current "dual energy consumption control" will result in 31% of capacity constraints.

Propylene oxide in Shandong is reported to RMB 17,500-17,600/ton. The early-stage load reduction overhaul device and the continued East China policy have caused many companies to increase their prices by about RMB 1,500/ton within the month.

Double control and double limit increase, supply reduction and price increase expectations

It is not difficult to see that the dual control of energy consumption has dealt a heavy blow to the chemical industry. Many key areas of chemical products such as titanium dioxide, yellow phosphorus, industrial silicon, organic silicon, epichlorohydrin, and epoxy resin have all encountered " In the “double restriction” situation, more than 50% of the country’s production capacity has been restricted, and yellow phosphorus has been restricted by about 80%. At present, many regions have begun to curtail power and production, and even stop work for more than half a month. The intensity is gradually increasing. It is not impossible to change from "double restriction" to "double shutdown" in the future, so many chemical products will change from reduced production. In order to stop production, the market inventory plummeted is the general trend, the later price rises, the era of money but no goods has come.