the land market volume of 40 cities in China declined and increased

Compared with last year, he domestic land market has decreased significantly. According to a report recently issued by Shanghai Yiju Research Institute, in the first half of 2019, the land transaction area of 40 cities in China was 25415,000 square meters, down 16.6% annually and 3.6% year-on-year, and the turnover annually declined significantly. In retrospect, the year-on-year increase in turnover began to rise gradually in the first half of 2015, peaked in the first half of 2018 and then fell back. 

In recent two years, the price of land market has been rising steadily. The report shows that 40 cities'land prices rose 57.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2016, then began to continue to decline, and rebounded in the second half of 2018, reaching 22.9% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2019. From the absolute value, the land price peaked in the second half of 2017, reaching 4918.2 yuan per square metre. In 2018, it fell to about 4250 yuan per square metre. In the first half of 2019, it reached a new high of 5218.1 yuan per square metre. In June, the top five cities in the 40 cities were Jinhua, Nanning, Jingzhou, Shenzhen and Fuzhou, and the premium rates were 72%, 70%, 58%, 48% and 44%, respectively. Shenzhen has been without land for four consecutive months. Among them, Shenzhen listed on June 24 to sell five residential land for the first time in 2019, and limited prices and other conditions. On the one hand, the high premium rate reflects that Shenzhen is a good city as a first-tier city. On the other hand, it reflects that due to the lack of land supply, Housing enterprises in Shenzhen have a small inventory and need to actively replenish the inventory.

In terms of quantity and price, there is a significant contrast between the first-and second-tier cities and the third-tier cities. In June, the land transaction building area of the four first-tier cities was 3322,000 square meters, an increase of 27% annually and 41% year-on-year. The analysis shows that the real estate regulation policy in the first-tier cities is strict and the market adjustment time is long. The land transaction area mainly depends on the size of the land supply. Usually, when the land supply increases, the transaction area also increases greatly.

The average six-month mobile land transaction price of the four first-tier cities is 14429 yuan/square metre, which is 22.5% higher than that of the previous year and 21.3% higher than that of the previous year. The increase of land price is obvious, which is roughly equivalent to the level in the second half of 2018. In June 2019, land prices rose significantly, mainly in Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai. The premium rates were 48%, 17% and 23%, respectively. Shenzhen was the first land supply in the year. On the one hand, it reflects the good urban fundamentals and sufficient market adjustment time of the first-tier cities. On the other hand, it reflects the small inventory of Housing enterprises in the first-tier cities due to the lack of land supply, which requires active replenishment of inventory. 

In June, the building area of land transactions in second-tier cities was 42731,000 square meters, a slight increase of 14.6% compared with the previous month; an increase of 22.8% compared with the same period last year, and the turnover in prefectures and cities was still relatively active; the moving average transaction price in six months was 5005.9 yuan/square meters, an increase of 6.0% compared with the previous month, and the increase was basically the same as that in the previous month; the year-on-year increase was 15.8%, expanding by 3.4 hundred. Equinox. At present, the land price of the second-tier cities has approached the highest historical land price range in the second half of 2017. Since the first quarter of the year, some hot cities have attracted great attention from the central government, such as overheating and unstable expectations, etc., "No speculation in housing" was mentioned again at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in April. Subsequently, Suzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan and other cities have issued regulatory policies to promote the smooth operation of the real estate market, in the second half of the year. The city may cool down. In the government work report of 2019, the keynote of the government is to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and steadily promote the legislation of real estate tax. The policy on the real estate market has not been relaxed, and it is still mainly "stable". As "Xiaoyangchun" appeared in some urban real estate markets in the first quarter, the housing sector gave early warning warnings to 10 cities with obvious price increases in April and May, respectively. In addition, due to the large amount of financing and loose funds in the first quarter, some housing enterprises have more radical access to land. In May, the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission (BIRC) restricted the financing channels of Housing enterprises to promote the steady development of the real estate market. According to Wang Ruochen, a researcher at Yiju Research Institute, the land market of first-tier and second-tier cities has obviously differentiated from that of third-tier cities. The main reasons for this are that the first-tier cities led by Shenzhen have less inventory of housing enterprises, better urban fundamentals and longer market adjustment time. Mark. In June, the land market in the second-tier cities was still hot, but with the introduction of relevant urban control policies, the second half of the year may have cooled down. Prices and volumes in third-tier cities are falling, or will begin to fall continuously.