Can the crude oil surge sustained in the attack on Saudi Arabia's Ami factory?

On September 16, WTI crude oil futures rose sharply to $62.90 per barrel, an increase of $8.05. Brent crude oil futures rose sharply to $69.02 per barrel, an increase of $8.8. In particular, Brent crude oil, which opened on September 16, rose rapidly by more than 10%, surging by nearly 19% in the session, its highest level in nearly four months. Why is the international crude oil market so dynamic? During the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in China, a news about the attack on the facilities of Saudi Arabia's Amy Oil Company became the biggest news shaking the crude oil market, and also the biggest black swan flying out of the market at present.

On September 14, Beijing time, two Saudi Ami factories were attacked, resulting in a temporary interruption of about 5.7 million barrels/day production capacity in Saudi Arabia, which is about 5% of the current global crude oil production. It is rare for so many crude oil production capacity to be interrupted in the short term. It is reported that the oil supply disruption in Saudi Arabia is a serious one in history, surpassing the oil supply disruption in Kuwait and Iraq in August 1990 and the loss of Iranian oil production during the Islamic Revolution in 1979. According to the latest news, Saudi officials are considering postponing the Saudi Arabian Amy IPO and seeking to assess the losses before changing the Saudi Amy IPO plan. Saudi Arabia's Amy Oil Company has asked local and international contractors to assess the damage to two key oil facilities caused by the attack, which is expected to take at least a few weeks for partial recovery. Oil distribution and U.S. oil are rising again. As of September 16, WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed up 12.52%, the biggest one-day gain in more than 10 years. Brent crude oil futures closed up 12.79%, the biggest one-day gain in nearly 30 years.

How does the future market of crude oil run?

Some analysts said that the surge may be just the beginning, given that the disruption of Saudi oil supply may last for several months. Sandy Fielden, director of Morningstar research, said Brent crude oil may rise to $80 per barrel tomorrow and WTI crude oil to $75 per barrel, but it will depend on the resumption of production announced by Saudi Arabia's Amy.

In terms of further information, Yemeni Hussein armed forces said on the 16th that the oil facilities attacked in Saudi Arabia were still the targets of the armed forces: Yahya Saliah, spokesman for the Hussein armed forces, issued a statement on the same day saying that "they may be attacked again at any time", which further aggravated the worrying atmosphere of the market. In this regard, the market is still multi-party in the near future. Business analyst Xue Jinlei believes that in the short run, the market is disturbed by news and emergency plans are being launched. Saudi officials say that Saudi Arabia and the United States will make up for this loss through oil stocks, which can restore 2 million barrels per day of crude oil production, and the market is less worried about the supply gap. Slow. In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy announced the release of 9.98 million barrels of strategic crude oil stocks. Russia's Ministry of Energy said it had sufficient commercial crude oil reserves to fill the gap caused by Saudi Arabia. Two major oil producers have expressed their views, which further alleviated market concerns. Therefore, the recent oil boom may have cooled down, but there are still uncertainties about oil prices in the future before the full recovery of Saudi Arabia's Amy plant and the relief of the crisis, and it is not excluded that oil prices will continue to rise due to geographic premiums.