Major financial data in September and the third quarter grew steadily

This week is the week for the release of a number of important macroeconomic data in the third quarter, according to China National Radio and television news. Yesterday (15) afternoon, the central bank released financial statistics reports for September and the third quarter. Among them, the main statistical data such as the increase of social financing scale, new RMB loans, and broad money (M2) all showed steady growth, or even exceeded the expected growth. At the third quarter data conference, how did the central bank explain this? What does the growth of the data show? What's the latest response from the heads of relevant departments of the central bank around key words such as loan interest rate, real estate and inflation?

The data shows that the scale of social financing increased by 2.27 trillion yuan in September, 255 billion yuan and 1383 billion yuan more than last month and the same period of last year respectively. These figures are higher than previously expected by the market. Ruan Jianhong, director of the investigation and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, introduced that there are reasons for the adjustment of statistical caliber. Since September 2019, the people's Bank of China has further improved the statistics of "corporate bonds" in "social financing scale", including "exchange enterprise asset-backed securities" (i.e. enterprise ABS) into the "corporate bonds" index. "Most of these securities are based on the accounts receivable of enterprises and loans from small loan companies.

They are financial support for the real economy, which is in line with the definition of social financing scale," said Ruan Jianhong. It has not been used as the statistics of social financing scale. Despite the adjustment of statistical caliber, there are still many remarkable points in financial statistics in September and the third quarter. According to the data, RMB loans increased by 1.69 trillion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 306.9 billion yuan, a new monthly high since the data was released in 2001. At the same time, at the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 195.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. Ruan Jianhong said that this is the result of the joint effect of the strong capital demand and the strengthening of the financial system's ability to serve the real economy: "on the one hand, China's economic fundamentals have been improving for a long time and its growth has been relatively resilient. The real economy still has a strong demand for capital. Recently, the people's Bank of China conducted a survey on the credit demand of more than 300 cities in China. The results show that the micro entities in the real economy still have strong credit demand. 60% of the banks believe that the demand for credit in the fourth quarter increased compared with the same period last year. Second, the ability of the financial system to serve the real economy has been strengthened. Since this year, the people's Bank of China and relevant departments have taken the initiative to dredge the channels of financial system liquidity transmission to the real economy. " In recent years, when the amount of money put into credit increases, the market will ask, where is the extra money? Is there a lot of money going to real estate?

This question has appeared several times since last year, but the data shows that money flows to the real economy continuously. "At the end of September, medium and long-term loans to the infrastructure industry increased by 8.9% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the end of last year, which is the highest rate since this year," said Ruan. The growth rate of medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry has obviously picked up, especially in high-tech manufacturing industry. At the end of September, the real estate loan balance of RMB was 43.3 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate had been falling for 14 consecutive months, which was 4.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. The growth rate of personal housing loans fell 1 percentage point from the end of last year. The growth rate of real estate development loans fell by 10.8 percentage points compared with the end of last year, and it also fell for 14 consecutive months. " Since the announcement of the central bank on August 16 to reform and improve the formation mechanism of the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market, whether the change of the reference standard of the new loan interest rate will be transmitted to the stock and how quickly has become a highly concerned topic in the market. Will the benchmark interest rate of loans be out of the historical arena soon? Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the people's Bank of China, responded: "at present, according to the data at the end of September, the proportion of LPR application in new loans issued by banks accounts for 56%, and the proportion of large banks will be higher. At the same time, the central bank studies the conversion of stock loan pricing benchmark. With the increasing proportion of new loans using LPR and the promotion of stock loan conversion, it should be a natural process for the benchmark interest rate to fade out in the future. "