In mid October, the price of national secondary coke fell by 2.5 CNY/ton

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics on October 24, in the middle of October, the price of national coke (secondary coke) was 1733.3 CNY/ton, down 2.5 CNY/ton or 0.1% compared with the previous period. During the national day, the coking plant's production restriction was generally lower than that of the steel plant. After the festival, with the marginal weakening of the production restriction, the coking plant's recovery speed was relatively fast, which led to the coking plant's accumulation in some regions, the port inventory was more than twice as high as that of the previous year, and the coke price was under pressure. Under the condition of economic downward pressure and steel peak season ending and environmental protection limited production, the consumption rate of crude steel in the downstream will fall down, which will affect the coke demand of steel plants. In particular, due to the implementation of coking production restriction in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places is not as strong as expected, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of coking plant in 2019 continue to remain at a high level, and the coke output in the first half of the year has reached a record high. At the end of the National Day holiday, coking plants affected by environmental protection in the early stage have resumed production, and the operating rate has picked up.

According to statistics of Mysteel, as of October 18, the operating rate of 230 independent coking plants in China was 75.08%, up 1.12% on a month on month basis. Among them, the operation rate of coking plants with larger production capacity has increased more. Among the 100 coking plants with production capacity greater than 2 million tons in China, the operation rate is 80.33%, with a month on month increase of 2.23 percentage points, the highest level in the same period of nearly three years. The high rate of start-up will inevitably bring about high output. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in September, the national coke output was 39.22 million tons, up 3.2% year on year; from January to September, the total coke output was 354.36 million tons, up 6.3% year on year, down 0.4 percentage points from January to August. At the same time, due to the impact of environmental protection and limited production, most of the steel plants mainly replenish the warehouse on demand, and some of the steel plants control the arrival of raw materials. Even so, at present, the coke inventory of 110 steel plants in China is at the highest level in five years. The price of coke purchased by some steel plants in Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi is reduced by 50 CNY/ton. According to the analysis of futures daily, the coking plant has increased its capacity utilization rate and the coke output has increased significantly. The coke inventory of coking plant, steel plant and port is at a high level in the same period of history. Coupled with the continuous downturn in exports, the coke market oversupply is prominent.

At present, more than half of the "silver ten" is purchased by downstream steel plants on demand, and even at reduced prices in some regions. In the future, production restriction in heating season will continue to upgrade, pig iron production will be reduced, coke demand will be suppressed, market mentality will become weak, and coke price will continue to move downward. It was learned on October 24 that a small number of coke enterprises had oversold phenomenon for clearing the storage, and the operation was stable and weak as a whole. In recent years, due to frequent environmental protection early warning in some regions of Shanxi Province, which affects the start-up of coke enterprises, about 30%. In addition to the pressure of shipment and inventory, some coke enterprises also intend to reduce production properly, and most coke enterprises in other regions maintain the early production load. The coke resources of port gathering port are continuously hanging upside down. At present, except for long-term cooperation, there are almost no traders gathering port, and the overall coke market is expected to be weak. Some traders in the port are willing to ship more, and their prices are lower. Among them, some resources with slightly poor indicators are sold to about 1750-1770 CNY/ton, and the prices in the mainstream market are still around 1800 CNY/ton, which can be negotiated. Most of Southern steel The coke stock of the factory is mostly in a reasonable position, the counter offer price is relatively low, and the port transaction is generally cold. On the downstream side, under the condition that the steel market is relatively weak, the steel plant still has the expectation of limiting production, and most of the coke stocks in the steel plant are still at the middle and high level, the current steel plant mainly controls the coke arrival volume moderately. On the premise of buying up but not buying down and the coke is a little surplus, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream steel plants is not high, and the arrival of goods is controlled properly. The traders are also basically out of the market, which affects the increase of coke enterprise inventory this week. In the short term, it is hard to change the situation of weak operation in the coke market. As of October 12, 1640 CNY/ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Luliang, Shanxi Province was the same as the previous phase, down 60 CNY/ton compared with the same period last month; 1860 CNY/ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province, down 20 CNY/ton compared with the previous phase, down 50 CNY/ton compared with the same period last month; 1800 CNY/ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Rizhao, Shandong Province, was the same as the previous phase, down 70 CNY/ton compared with the same period last month.