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    Home > Chemial News > Valuable News > When to break the stalemate of coastal coal market?

    When to break the stalemate of coastal coal market?

    Echemi 2019-12-06


    At the end of the year, the coal mine safety inspection has brought restrictions on the increase of production, while the downstream is mainly for digestion of inventory temporarily, and there is no obvious increase in demand. There are few ships to pull coal at the port. The coastal coal market still maintains a low supply and demand, and the market continues to fluctuate steadily and narrowly. In terms of coal trading, the inquiry trading in port market is mostly concentrated on medium and low calorie coal. The actual trading price of power coal in 5500 kcal market is about 550 yuan / ton, and the closing price of power coal in 5000 kcal market is about 490 yuan / ton. In November, the low calorie coal increased by about 10 yuan / ton, while the high calorie coal remained stable. Due to the frequent safety accidents in the early stage and the upgrading of import restrictions, as well as the coming winter heating demand peak season, the market has strong psychological support, so the coal price is unlikely to fall.

    However, the supply of the main production area is stable, the railway transportation is on the high side, and the port coal inventory is high. In the context of electricity market, the power plant is relatively cautious in the purchase of domestic trade coal; in addition, the large coal enterprises have a high cash ratio for Changxie coal, and the supply is sufficient, the demand and supply of market coal are both low, and the sharp rise of coal price is also unrealistic. With the increasingly prominent effect of import coal quota control, stimulating the accelerated release of electric coal demand of some terminal power plants, the demand in East China has suddenly improved, and ship hauling is mainly concentrated in the middle and late December. However, the coal demand in the south of China has improved in an all-round way. It needs to wait until the coal consumption reaches a certain period of time before the coastal coal transportation becomes busy. In the near future, the number of new cargo inquires in the port is relatively small, the coal storage in the port is dominated by large-scale coal enterprises and special sites for power plants, the spot resources in the market are relatively small, and the enthusiasm of some suppliers to ship to the port has declined based on the cost inversion and other factors; in addition, in the near 2020 coal and carbon trade fair, the mentality of both sides of supply and demand is different, and most of them are onlookers.

    From the perspective of demand, with the arrival of heating season, the daily consumption of power plants began to rise seasonally. Up to now, the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants has risen to 710000 tons, an increase of 143000 tons compared with the beginning of the month. However, due to the relatively high inventory and 23 days available, the enthusiasm of the downstream transportation is not high. There are only 17 anchor ships and 20 anchor ships in Qinhuangdao port and Huanghua port, respectively. There is no possibility of a significant upward trend in the spot price of coal. At present, there is no phenomenon of strong purchase from downstream users, and naturally, coal price cannot be driven up. Once in the middle and late December, affected by the southward movement of strong cold air, the stronger demand for civil power will drive the increase of power plant load, and the market will be improved; on the one hand, in the coldest season of winter, the daily consumption of power plant will pick up, and the downstream users need to increase the coal storage before the arrival of two quarters, and the enthusiasm of hauling will be improved; on the other hand, the control effect of import coal quota will be more obvious, which will affect the domestic market The impact is deepened and the demand side purchase volume is boosted. At that time, the north coal South transportation will be more busy, and the coal price rise will be supported.

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