Power coal: continue to explore the bottom, no bottom?

At present, when the downstream demand is bleak and the port anchorage ships continue to be single digit, traders are more panic and eager to ship, and the quotation is close to the best price of the long-term cooperation of large groups, but the demand is still not significantly improved, and the price is still further explored. On April 2, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 526 CNY/ton, a new low level since the beginning of September 2016, and it continued to decline for 21 consecutive periods. Compared with the price in the previous period, it continued to callback 4 CNY/ton, a decrease of 45 CNY/ton or 7.9% compared with the same period last month; The price of cci5000 power coal is 458 CNY/ton, which is 4 CNY/ton lower than that of the previous period, and 55 CNY/ton or 10.7% lower than that of the same period last month. In terms of the latest market, at present, the northern port market is still in a panic. Each company has issued preferential policies in succession, hoping to speed up the shipment. In the mentality of buying up and not buying down, the downstream will postpone or stop the order, waiting for the market price to further explore. Market participants said that at present, the change of the demand side is still the main driving point of the contradiction between supply and demand, and the price is difficult to stabilize in the short term.

According to the current situation of the port, Zhao Jing, an analyst of China coal resources network, pointed out in an interview that in the near future, the coal market in the port is facing the expansion of the stock scale, the slowdown of the demand increment, and the common problems of the market subjects as well as the prominent problems of differentiation. In terms of common problems, "some coal mines in the upstream main production area take preferential measures according to the traffic flow and inventory; coal enterprises above the port scale gradually increase the preferential measures of" volume price linkage "on the basis of long-term cooperative price; the liquidity of intermediate traders is getting worse; the operation efficiency of partial transfer ports is decreasing; some terminals are reducing inventory; The volatility of the main futures contracts will conduct the spot expectation. " Zhao Jing said. In terms of differentiation, Zhao Jing said that it is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1) the price competition of port enterprises is intensified, and the market coal price is rapidly approaching the preferential long-term coal price, while the price competition is excessive or will accelerate the decline of market coal price; 2) , some of the terminal procurement channels are more diversified, which also brings the cost competition of domestic water coal / direct coal / Auto coal transportation. Especially during the period of high-speed and free of charge affected by the epidemic, the road transportation radius of coal in the main production area increases, the terminal reduces the cost of raw material procurement, but also squeezes the demand for water coal in some areas; 3) the impact of some imported coal "floating goods" on the demand for domestic coal price. Will the decline continue? It is not expected that the short-term rebound will be very likely? In this regard, Zhao Jing analyzed that, "some port enterprises flexibly use preferential measures, together with some transit port port port dredging measures, and the short-term market coal price quickly moves closer to the preferential long-term price of large coal enterprises, and the rate will continue to fall inertia."

"However, in the process of price decline, from the perspective of economic benefits, some traders choose to reduce the transfer in, some traders hold the goods and wait to suspend the bidding, and some terminals wait to choose the machine to purchase. Although the short-term supply-demand balance in the domestic coal market is more difficult, it also puts forward higher requirements for the collaborative optimization of the coal supply chain, but with the recovery of demand in some industries, as well as the optimization of various links such as futures and spot goods, etc After the adjustment, it is not ruled out that the decline may be stopped at this month's stage, "said Zhao Jing," and the overseas epidemic undoubtedly brings uncertainty to the future market trend, which is vulnerable to the influence of negative news; in addition, the coexistence of potential multiple factors such as changes in the international crude oil market and illegal issues in the coal field within 20 years in Inner Mongolia, the main producing area, makes the short-term insufficient to assert that the market will stop the decline trend. " In addition, some industry analysts believe that the supply elasticity of power coal market is significantly higher than the demand elasticity, the coal price continues to seek the bottom, the coal production of northern port is in the dilemma of inefficient operation, and the inventory is rapidly accumulated. At present, the port shipping demand is seriously insufficient, and the inventory will reach the pressure level soon after the high base continues, which may affect the railway centralized transportation in the future. Under the low demand, the contradiction between the current situation of port high inventory and the demand for going to storage may be further deepened.

In terms of imported coal, for the imported coal that a power plant planned to cancel in the early stage, now traders are still negotiating with it. There is no Indonesian coal floating cargo that has been defaulted in the market. Australian coal has few inquiries for the Chinese market, so there is no transaction. Some customers said that the current market continues to decline, there are many uncertainties in imported coal, traders are not willing to operate, and they think there is still downward pressure on short-term coal prices. As for the downstream power plants, as of April 2, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.445 million tons, with a decrease of 695000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio; the daily coal consumption was 587000 tons, with an increase of 45000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio; the available days were 28.0 days, with a decrease of 3.6 days in the weekly to environmental ratio. In terms of origin, Peng Xiaofang, an analyst with China coal resources network, pointed out that due to the downward trend of the port coal market, traders suspended purchasing, the water coal in the origin coal mine was not shipped smoothly, the inventory was overstocked, and the price was constantly under explored. Among them, the coal price in the northern Shanxi region decreased significantly, and the coal price in the Ordos region of Inner Mongolia continued to decline slightly. The price of coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province is stable this week due to different sales flows. In the short term, how will the coal price in the production area be deduced? In response, Peng Xiaofang said, "some inland power plants purchase under pressure and have the intention of de stocking. The situation of direct coal sales in the production area is also general. Other chemical plants and other terminals purchase on demand, and the demand side support is weak. Most of the coal mines think that the price will continue to decline in the later period." In terms of the latest production area market, there is no obvious improvement in the sales of coal mines in the production area, and the price of coal mines keeps stable in the middle and down. The production and sales of large mines in Shaanxi Province are balanced. Some small mines indicate that some chemical customers have reduced procurement, and the sales pressure is high, and the price is down; Affected by the lower price of the downstream and port, the bidding price of the surrounding platform is lower, the downstream power plant and metallurgical chemical industry are basically purchased on demand, the overall demand is small, the coal mine inventory remains high, and the production of a small number of mines is reduced due to the top warehouse, the miners generally say that there is no good support in the short term, and the future market expectation is poor. According to the CCI valuation of Fenwei, as of April 2, Yulin 5800 kcal index was 372 CNY/ton, down 81 yuan compared with the same period last month; Ordos 5500 kcal index was 309 yuan, down 67 yuan compared with the same period last month; Datong 5500 kcal index was 367 CNY/ton, down 51 yuan compared with the same period last month.