Maleic anhydride returns to a reasonable price and is under pressure later

Recently, the domestic maleic anhydride market has basically returned to a reasonable price level during the year after a sharp rise and fall. However, in terms of comprehensive supply, demand and cost factors, the current market price is weakly supported by its support, and there is still a risk of downward pressure in the future.

From August to September, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been in a state of strong growth for a long time, the highest increase can reach about 4,000 CNY/ton, of which the East China solid acceptance price once rushed to around 10,000 yuan per ton. However, since late September, the market price has been weak and began to decline. As of October 20, the East China price has given up the previous increase of 3,300 CNY/ton, and the East China price has dropped to about 6,700 CNY/ton. Compared with the situation from January to July during the year, the current market price is no longer too high, but in terms of comprehensive supply, demand and cost factors, the current market price is weakly supported by its support, and there are still downward expectations under pressure in the future.

In the near term, the overall volume of enterprises before and after the holiday is still at a low level, and factories generally deliver orders to around mid-October, and the sales volume is still low. However, since the end of September, Xinyang Technology and Jiuyuan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. released a total of 100,000 tons of new production capacity, and gradually exported and shipped them. In addition, since the restart of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical at the end of September, they began to implement early-stage low-price contract orders, which made some businesses hold The cost of goods has fallen. In addition, the downstream resins have recently mainly consumed pre-stocking, lack of interest in purchasing high-priced raw materials, and the lack of buying in the market has seriously suppressed the confidence of the industry, and the overall bearish sentiment has risen sharply. During the pre-holiday period, the mid-to-forward orders of merchants and some companies have already seen a sharp drop. After the holiday, the volume of goods increased. In addition, under the condition of unsupported cost, manufacturers actively bid for shipments. Only during the first week after the holiday, the decline has reached 2,000 CNY/ton. Around this time, due to the sharp decline in the market, users increasingly lack buying intentions, and the market has been in a state of infinite empty decline for a long time. Until the beginning of the second week after the holiday, due to the return of the market price level to an annual reasonable state, it basically reached the psychologically acceptable price of users. In addition, the stocks in the previous period have been consumed, and the just-needed buying began to gradually increase the volume. Due to the support from the transaction, the main factories and holdings The willingness of merchants to cut prices began to weaken, and the decline in market prices began to slow down.

However, in terms of market outlook, the expected market is still not optimistic. Before the deadline, the theoretical profits of the benzene process and butane process plants are around 1510 CNY/ton and 1285 CNY/ton. The cost-side support is still weak. Due to the strong profitability, the comprehensive start-up of the company is supported to maintain a high level, and some maintenance devices It has been restarted recently. Among them, Zhongshan Union restarted after a short stop for a week near mid-October. Xinjiang Kailianjie started a short stop on the 15th and is currently resuming production. In addition, Shandong Hongxin's 40,000 tons/year benzene process plant, which has been shut down for a long time, is currently restarted and will have products in the near future. In addition, Xinjiang Jinyuan plans to restart driving near the end of the month. On the whole, the comprehensive start of domestic maleic anhydride enterprises is expected to increase to more than 85% at the end of the month. Compared with around mid-October, the daily domestic maleic anhydride supply will increase by about 300 tons at the end of the month. However, in late October, due to the traditional peak season of demand, the willingness to start downstream resins was relatively strong. Due to the small amount of raw materials held, the willingness to purchase maleic anhydride in the near future was acceptable. However, it is generally cautious to focus on rigid demand, and the overall volume of maleic anhydride companies has not accumulated much. The rate of price cuts will slow down significantly, so the market is expected to slow down in late October. However, until November, as the weather turns cold, terminal construction and other industries have entered the traditional off-season. In addition, air pollution remediation in the north may begin again, which will restrict the start of resin and other industries, and the demand is expected to gradually decline, while the maleic anhydride industry is subject to environmental protection. The restrictions are very small, supply and demand will be significantly weakened, the price difference between raw materials and maleic anhydride is large, and the cost side is still difficult to support. In addition, due to the suppression of the international epidemic, the external environment is difficult to say. Under comprehensive pressure, the market for maleic anhydride continues to fall sharply expected.