Explosion! Air strike! Sanctions! 'Great Earthquake' in the chemical industry! Prices will increase in April!

It is understood that a large explosion occurred at an oil refinery in the early morning of March 29, local time in Indonesia. The cause of the explosion is currently unknown; on March 26, the Houthis in Yemen claimed to have attacked Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Ras Tanura, Rabigh, Yanbu and Jizan... …The international crude oil prices have been pushed up as a whole due to various factors. As of 15:00 on March 29, the main international crude oil has risen by nearly 2%.

Fight back strongly! Three consecutive sanctions within 6 days, dozens of chemical giants will be restricted!

It is reported that in the past 6 days, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued three consecutive news of sanctions: China has announced sanctions on relevant personnel and entities in the United States and Canada; China has severely harmed China’s sovereignty and interests of the European Union and maliciously spread lies and false information. Sanctions were imposed on personnel and 4 entities; sanctions were imposed on 9 British personnel and 4 entities who maliciously spread lies and false information. Sanctions include related personnel and their family members being barred from entering mainland China and the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions. They and their affiliated companies and institutions have also been restricted from communicating with China, and their property in China has been frozen.

Industry insiders have previously analyzed that with the escalation of sanctions, relevant personnel in the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and other countries and regions and their affiliates and institutions have been restricted from communicating with China. The mutual sanctions between the two parties may exacerbate the situation of market supply cuts, whether it is more than 30 well-known chemical companies such as BASF, DSM, Arkema, and Bayer in the European Union, or Dow, DuPont, PPG, PPG, etc. in the United States and the United Kingdom. The import and export trade of BP and other companies with China may be affected accordingly, and the supply of products of the chemical industry giants will have varying degrees of impact on the production and manufacturing of some domestic high-end chemical products and even the production and operation of the entire chemical industry.

The seventh day of being blocked is still not completely out of trouble, "the great ship jam of the century" pushes up anxiety

Also "adding congestion" to the chemical market is the recent "Eurasian artery" Suez Canal incident of the "Century Ship Jam". As of yesterday (29th), it is the 7th day that the huge ship ran aground on the Suez Canal, and the freighter has not completely escaped. More than 300 ships have been unable to pass normally near the canal, and important goods and sensitive products worth billions of dollars have been backlogged, which has also affected the global supply chain. According to Agence France-Presse, the Egyptian Suez Canal Authority stated that it will take three and a half days for the canal to resume unblocking after the "Long Grant" rises again. Not long ago, maritime service provider Inchcape announced on social media that the "Long Grant" stuck in the Suez Canal successfully surfaced at 4:30 am local time on the 29th.

As one of the most important shipping channels in the world, the blockage of the Suez Canal has added new worries to the already tight global container ship capacity. Data shows that in global maritime logistics, about 15% of cargo ships pass through the Suez Canal, and about 30 heavy cargo ships pass through the Suez Canal every day. One day blockage means that 55,000 containers are delayed in delivery. The Suez Canal is blocked or global trade weekly. Losses of USD 6 billion to USD 10 billion (equivalent to more than RMB 60 billion).

The "big ship jam" has caused many market participants to worry that the prices of international crude oil and other commodities will soar as a result, and at the same time boosted anxiety. As of 18:55 on the 29th, Beijing time, U.S. oil set a one-week high to 61.47 US dollars/barrel, and the intraday increase expanded to 0.82%, and the oil distribution set a week and a half high to 65.22 US dollars/barrel, and the intraday increase expanded to 1.23%. Affected by crude oil, The chemical industry is also showing a state of high volatility. On the 29th, most of the domestic commodity futures markets opened higher. Coking coal rose more than 5%, crude oil, fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil rose by more than 3%, glass, PTA, etc. rose by more than 2%, PVC, Zheng alcohol, etc. rose by more than 1%, and chemical industry There is also a trend of rising prices of raw materials.

PA6 rose by 400 CNY/ton, PA66 rose by 500 CNY/ton, PC rose by 800 CNY/ton, PVC rose by 130 CNY/ton, ABS rose by 300 CNY/ton, POM rose by 200 CNY/ton, isobutyl Aldehyde rose by 200 CNY/ton, styrene rose by 113.33 CNY/ton, liquid epoxy resin rose by 325 CNY/ton, neopentyl glycol rose by 116.67 CNY/ton, bisphenol A rose by 150 CNY/ton, positive Butyraldehyde rises by 300 CNY/ton each day...
The severe epidemic situation in Europe has brought negative pressure to the market, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have been escalating. Superimposed on Friday, the Houthis in Yemen claimed to have attacked Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities. Multiple factors boosted the momentum of crude oil rise. The “stranding” incident may become the “butterfly” that instigates the wings of inflation. Once the canal is blocked for more than two weeks, it will have a substantial impact on the supply and demand of the crude oil market, causing oil prices to continue to rise.

Supply shortages, high freight rates, and the chemical industry push up bullish expectations

The Suez Canal carries 10% of the world's maritime trade volume. Approximately 25% of the world's container transportation needs to pass through the Suez Canal. However, this ship jam has caused the shortage of containers in Asia to worsen, which has led to rapid growth in shipping prices and higher logistics costs. . Due to the stranded freighter, the price of transporting a 40-foot container from China to Europe has risen to nearly US$8,000 (approximately RMB 52,328), nearly three times more than a year ago. The cargo ships of many shipping giants have begun to turn around and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. The voyage will be nearly 8,000 kilometers longer, and the time will be 9-14 days longer (the cost increases by an average of 470,000 US dollars, or about 3.07 million yuan), giving ocean shipping capacity. Bring great challenges. Shipping companies are considering levying surcharges on ships diverted across Africa to make up for the additional cost of bunker fuel consumed during the additional 7 to 10 days of transportation.
Based on the previous sanctions, the import of chemical raw materials from many countries and regions may be greatly affected by my country. Then the chemical industry will face not only price increases, but also a severe situation of "cutting supply". With the current shortage of supplies in the chemical market and rising costs, the prices of chemical raw materials and products are expected to continue to rise.