Ample Supply, Acrylonitrile Prices Fluctuate Downward

September 19, News

During the week, supply in the East China region decreased, while maintenance units in the northern part of China gradually resumed operations. At the same time, some manufacturers increased their external sales, leading to overall supply saturation. Spot demand remained insufficient, and suppliers lowered their offers. As of September 19, the mainstream ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports was 8,300-8,400 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton from last week; the short-distance delivery price in the Shandong market was 8,250-8,350 CNY/ton, also down 100 CNY/ton from last week.

Supply increases

In the East China region, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 520,000-ton acrylonitrile unit will undergo maintenance starting September 15 for about 10 days, reducing its load to 50% and leading to a decrease in supply. Meanwhile, in the northern market, Tianchen Qixiang’s 130,000-ton acrylonitrile unit—which was shut down for maintenance at the end of July—and Daqing Petrochemical’s 80,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile unit, which underwent routine maintenance on August 20, have both resumed operations this week, boosting supply. Overall, the capacity utilization rate has improved, resulting in increased production and a relatively ample supply across the board.

According to statistics, as of September 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile plants in China reached 72.68%, an increase of 0.78% from the same period last week. The weekly production was approximately 82,800 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. The total inventory was about 41,000 tons, remaining unchanged from last week.

Limited demand growth:

This week, the demand for acrylonitrile in major downstream industries in China has increased. The capacity utilization rate for ABS is 69.8%, a decrease of 0.2% from last week. However, with Yulong Petrochemical commissioning a new 300,000-ton expansion, the total annual capacity for ABS has reached 10,490,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate for acrylic fiber enterprises is 66.12%, with Jilin Petrochemical's Jilin Meng acrylic fiber plant increasing its load from 30% to around 60%. The capacity utilization rate for acrylamide is 56.46%, an increase of 0.88% from last week.

Cost support continuation:

During the period, the production cost of acrylonitrile raw materials did not change much. As of September 18, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6,625 CNY/ton, a decrease of 75 CNY/ton from 6,700 CNY/ton at the end of last week. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated and declined, leading to a further increase in production losses this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the previous week. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -589 CNY/ton, a decrease of 115 CNY/ton.

Later forecasts suggest that supply from the north will increase, while demand growth remains limited—particularly as spot buyers continue to meet only their essential needs. As a result, the market is expected to experience a temporary pullback. However, given ongoing cost pressures and expectations of future inventory replenishment, the market’s room for further short-term declines remains relatively constrained.