Business Society: The Bisphenol A Market in March Shows a Trend of Sharp Rise Followed by Gradual Stabilization

March 31st, News

In March 2026, the Chinese bisphenol A (BPA) market experienced a strong surge, with prices showing a significant upward trend, exhibiting a rollercoaster-like pattern of "first skyrocketing, then retreating, and finally stabilizing," making it the most watched variety in the chemical market for the month. As of March 31, the benchmark price of BPA was reported at 11,520.00 CNY/ton, representing a 42.75% increase from the beginning of the month (8,070.00 CNY/ton). The price is in the highest range in nearly a year, about 14% higher than the historical median value (9,725 CNY/ton), with market activity and price increases exceeding expectations.

In March, the BPA market exhibited a stepwise upward trend characterized by an "explosive surge—rational correction—steady recovery" pattern, which can be summarized into two core phases. In the first half of the month, the BPA market completely broke away from its previous period of stability and quietness, rapidly entering a frenzied price-raising phase where prices changed daily. Prices surged from 8,070 CNY/ton on March 1 to 12,360 CNY/ton on March 9—a remarkable increase of 53.16% in just nine days. In the mid-to-late part of the month, influenced by volatile international crude oil prices and growing resistance among downstream enterprises to high prices, BPA prices experienced a rational correction, dropping as low as 10,510 CNY/ton. Subsequently, supported by sustained cost-floor support and the urgent need for restocking by downstream users, prices gradually stabilized and rebounded. By the end of the month, prices had stabilized at 11,520 CNY/ton, up nearly 10% from the lowest point of the correction, and the market’s supply-demand balance once again returned to a tight equilibrium.

The significant upward trend in the bisphenol A market in March was the result of the synergistic resonance of three core factors: cost, supply, and demand. The rigid support from the cost side and the tight balance in the market supply and demand were the core driving forces behind the price increase.

Cost Side: Driven by crude oil, phenol and ketone prices surged together, forming a strong support level.

In the cost structure of bisphenol A production, phenol and acetone—key raw materials—account for over 70%, and their price fluctuations directly determine the trend in bisphenol A costs. Since March, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have continued to escalate, causing significant volatility in international crude oil prices. At one point, Brent crude oil futures prices broke through $110 per barrel, providing strong cost support to the entire petrochemical industry chain. Driven by this trend, the prices of phenol and acetone—the core raw materials for bisphenol A—have surged simultaneously, directly pushing up the production costs of bisphenol A and forcing Chinese bisphenol A manufacturers to continuously raise their factory prices, making them one of the key drivers behind the upward price movement.

Supply Side: Major Chinese producers are holding firm on prices, and tight spot supply is intensifying the market's tense atmosphere.

The tightening of the supply side has further amplified the momentum for price increases, becoming an important driver for the upward trend. In March, the operating rates of major bisphenol A production facilities in China (such as Ruiheng in Jiangsu, Nantong Xingchen, and Longjiang Chemical) were maintained at 60-85%, without reaching full capacity, resulting in a relatively limited overall supply in the market. At the same time, the industry's overall inventory turnover days dropped to 10-15 days, significantly lower than the historical average, with spot circulation remaining tight. Additionally, producers prioritized the supply needs of long-term contract customers, leading to a smaller volume of spot sales. Traders took the opportunity to hold back goods and sell cautiously, further exacerbating the irrational market atmosphere of "buying on rising prices but not on falling prices," continuously pushing prices higher.

** Demand Side: As the peak season arrives, the release of rigid demand provides solid support. **

March marks the traditional peak consumption season for the chemical industry—the “Golden March and Silver April” period. Downstream core application industries, including epoxy resins and polycarbonate (PC), have fully resumed production and operations, leading to a concentrated surge in procurement demand. According to industry data, PC and epoxy resins together account for over 97% of bisphenol A consumption; thus, the growth in demand for these two sectors directly drives up the market consumption volume of bisphenol A. Although bisphenol A prices remained at high levels in March, downstream factories were compelled to replenish their inventories to maintain normal production schedules. This robust demand has provided a solid floor for bisphenol A prices, further fueling their continued upward trend.

Downstream industries are under pressure, and cost pressure continues to be transmitted.

The sharp increase in the price of bisphenol A has directly led to a significant rise in the production costs of downstream products such as epoxy resins and polycarbonate (PC), with the powder coatings industry being the most affected. By late March, the price of bisphenol A had risen by more than 3,200 CNY per ton compared to the beginning of the year. This cost pressure forced dozens of Chinese powder coating companies (such as Fujian Wan'an and Hansen Bond) to issue price increase notices, with the price hikes ranging from 15% to 70%. Downstream companies generally face the dual pressures of "substantial cost increases" and "intense competition in the end market," leading to a significant compression of profit margins. Some small and medium-sized enterprises, unable to bear the continuously rising cost pressure, have reduced production, halted operations, or even exited the market.

4. Outlook for the Future Market

From a short-term perspective, the market in China will still maintain a strong operating pattern, but in the long term, it is necessary to be particularly vigilant about the potential risks of price corrections.

From a price support perspective, in the short term, international crude oil and phenol prices are expected to remain at high levels, continuously providing rigid cost support for bisphenol A; meanwhile, in the second quarter, some bisphenol A production facilities in China are scheduled to enter maintenance cycles, which is expected to reduce market supply by about 50,000 tons. The situation of tight supply will be difficult to alleviate in the short term; additionally, the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March, Silver April" is still ongoing, and the rigid demand procurement from downstream industries will still maintain a certain scale. These factors together support the high price level of bisphenol A.

From the perspective of potential risk factors, the current price of bisphenol A is already at a high level, and there is still uncertainty about whether downstream demand can continue to follow. If downstream companies choose to reduce production and lower capacity due to increasing cost pressure, it will directly lead to a contraction in market demand, thereby triggering a price correction. Additionally, if international geopolitical conflicts ease, leading to a decline in crude oil prices, or if phenol and acetone prices become more flexible, or if China's new bisphenol A production capacity is gradually released, these factors would all put significant downward pressure on bisphenol A prices, increasing the likelihood of a price correction.

Overall, in the short term, the bisphenol A market in China will mainly operate at a high level with fluctuations, and the amplitude of price fluctuation is expected to gradually narrow; in the long term, as the supply and demand structure of the industry gradually adjusts and market sentiment returns to rationality, prices are expected to gradually return to a reasonable range. Against this backdrop, it is recommended to view the current market situation rationally, reasonably control inventory, manage risks well, and smoothly navigate through this raw material price fluctuation cycle.