Port Coal Market Is Difficult to Welcome 'Spring'

Some power plants in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia introduced the purchase price of power coal in September. The purchase price rose universally, with an increase of about 15 yuan. Previously, I combined with the current market situation, predicted that the monthly purchase price in September will rise by more than 10 yuan. One of the reasons is that the supply and demand in the coal-sizing area are tight and balanced. In August, the supply of electric coal showed signs of tightening. The second reason: unlike coastal power plants, September is the reserve time for local power plants. The third reason is the psychological pressure caused by the 70-year Daqing of the Republic. At the same time, the coal mine may rise more severely. Personally, this possibility is not excluded. At present, the price of pithead pulverized coal in Gaotouyao area of Daqi has risen by about 10 yuan, and the increase of pithead is likely to exceed the increase of purchasing in power plants. At present, pithead coal prices in Ordos and Yulin are rising tentatively, although lump coal sales have been declining since 2017. But September is a golden season, a downstream stock season, and also a season of rising coal prices in production areas. My preliminary judgment is that by the end of September in Yulin and Ordos production areas, the price of individual coal blocks will rise by at least 40 yuan, and at the same time accompanied by the rise of road freight, the primary seasonal factor, followed by policy factors. 

Although coal prices in northern ports have been rising continuously, the pressure of rebound in spot prices is heavy. This week, the most important event of concern is that the maintenance time of Daqin Line is ahead of schedule. If this event is used solely to boost the northern port market, it is almost impossible because this year's coal transport bottleneck has been basically solved. 。 More precisely, September should be the season for traders to ship goods, because September is somewhat favorable for coal prices, because summer is coming to an end. Since last year, coastal power plants have been accustomed to replenishing their warehouses in off-season, using high inventories to suppress coal prices. Imports of coal will not be reduced, high inventory will not go, as long as the price of coal probe will be depressed, the port coal market is difficult to usher in spring.