Downstream polyester demand will weaken the high downstream of ethylene glycol

Last weekend, a crude oil processing plant and oil field in Saudi Arabia were attacked by UAVs, which disrupted an average domestic production of 5.7 million barrels a day. This also directly led to the price of Brent crude oil soaring by nearly 12%, the highest one-day increase since the 1991 Gulf War. The surge of crude oil directly led to the rise of domestic chemical products. The main contract of MEG in 2001 touched the floor for two consecutive trading days. However, with Saudi Arabia declaring that all production capacity would be restored by the end of this month, oil prices quickly reversed nearly half of the previous increase, which directly contributed to the fall of MEG prices. Therefore, we believe that ethylene glycol will return to the fundamentals after the crude oil storm. First of all, at this stage, ethylene glycol production enterprises have returned to profitability. Secondly, the start-up rate will increase steadily after the National Day holiday, and a number of new devices at home and abroad will be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Finally, downstream polyesterdemand will enter the off-season. Therefore, the probability of gradual decline of MEG high is higher.

Ethylene glycol enterprises have returned to the background of intensified competition in the late profit period

Under the background of large-scale expansion of production, especially the centralized production of domestic refinery and chemical integration units, the competition in the domestic Ethylene glycol market will be significantly intensified, which will lead to a long-term loss situation for the production enterprises, and then the elimination of some backward production capacity can be realized. Full competition in the market. Since the end of March this year, the cash flow of naphtha-based MEG has been at a negative level for a long time, which has led to the decline of the start-up rate of domestic and foreign MEG manufacturers and the continuous reduction of domestic stocks in East China ports. However, with the recent sharp rise in the price of ethylene glycol, both naphtha-based MEG and ethylene-based MEG began to make profits, which will inevitably lead to the re-intensification of competition among the later processes.

Ethylene glycol start-up rate will gradually increase the new plant put into operation

In the case of sustained losses, the start-up rate of domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises has gradually declined since the end of March, and the start-up load of coal-based ethylene glycol once fell below 50%. However, with the improvement of profit, according to the current spot price of ethylene glycol. It is estimated that coal-based ethylene glycol enterprises have begun to make profits. Recently, a number of units have announced plans to restart or load up, such as 300,000 tons per year for Xinhang Energy, 200,000 tons per year for Henan Energy (Yongcheng) and 200,000 tons per year for Yangcheng Coal. In addition, after the National Day in Tianying, Xinjiang, Henan Energy (Anyang) and Henan Energy (Xinxiang) still have the start-up plan. The above-mentioned re-production devices can provide 80,000-100,000 tons/month of additional supply and output. At present, the start-up rate of domestic ethylene glycol enterprises has seen a bottom rebound. In addition to the restart of existing devices, the process of putting new devices into operation is also gradually advancing. The 750,000-ton MEGlobal plant in Texas, USA, is scheduled to start production in November, and its main destination is China. Zhejiang Petrochemical Co. Ltd. and Hengli Petrochemical Co. Ltd. (600346, stock bar) are expected to put into operation in the fourth quarter of this year. Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity will increase rapidly, and supply pressure can not be ignored.

After the seasonal peak season, the demand for downstream polyester will weaken

According to the traditional consumption habits, September and October are the seasonal peak season of domestic polyester demand. Especially in the case of better production profits of early polyester enterprises, the start-up load of enterprises will maintain a high level, but the overall level is lower than the same period last year and it is difficult to re-establish in the near future. Second promotion. More importantly, with the recent rise in PTA and MEG prices of raw materials, the profits of polyester enterprises have declined significantly, which may lead to an earlier weakening of their demand.