Port coal prices are likely to rise and fall this week

This week, it is expected that the coastal coal market will maintain a weak trend of supply and demand, and the trading price of coal in the Bohai Sea port market is expected to continue to rise slightly. The main reasons are as follows: The operating rate of the upstream main producing areas is growing slowly, and the coal supply continues to remain tight; in addition, the coal production mainly focuses on the supply within the province, while the development outside the province is mainly focused on the railway transportation, and the long-term coal cooperation is the main reason. However, the road transportation is blocked, the coal storage at the coal generation platform is low, the quantity of collection and distribution is difficult to be improved, and the price of power coal at the mine mouth is expected to rise slightly.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the resumption of production of the coal mines in the main production area slowed down, while the coal mines in production were unable to operate at full capacity due to the shortage of manpower; many small and medium-sized coal mines and private mines were still in the state of shutdown, and their output in supply was very small. Although the Energy Bureau requires coal mines to speed up the resumption of production and work to ensure the supply of coal, each major coal producing area should be determined according to the progress of epidemic control, with uneven resumption progress and low output. The downstream East China and South China areas are in the stage of slow resumption of work, and the industrial power consumption is not vibration; in addition, in order to fight the epidemic, some areas are not allowed to turn on the central air conditioning, and the civil power is not vibration. It is estimated that this week, the daily consumption of six major coastal power plants will remain at about 400000 tons, and breaking through 500000 tons is an extravagant hope. At present, most of the coastal power plants do not lack coal, and the available days for coal storage are about 40 days; this week, the coastal coal market continues the weak trend of supply and demand.

It is difficult to increase coal storage in the port. In the case of slow return to work in the upstream, it is difficult to increase the amount of coal transported by railway. It is expected that the increase of Daqin line and Zhangtang line is very limited. The transfer in and transfer out of ports around the Bohai Sea continue to maintain a double low and coal storage remains low. It is worth noting that Qinhuangdao port, known as the "wind vane of coal price", is the key reference factor for the rise and fall of coal price due to the increase and decrease of coal storage in the port; the author analyzes that unless the coal storage in Qinhuangdao port exceeds 5 million tons, otherwise, the coal price is still likely to remain firm and will not fall. Domestic coal is still the focus of procurement. In the case of slow recovery of downstream demand, the supply of international market is tight, the shipping cycle is extended, and the import coal supplement is limited, so it is not able to enter the domestic market substantially; the coastal and riverside users still mainly rely on domestic coal, which also makes domestic coal popular again, to a large extent, supports the rise and fall of coal price in Bohai port.