2.4% Beijing's CPI growth slowed down year-on-year in August

Beijing's CPI growth slowed down in August compared with last month. On September 11, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics released the Beijing Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August. The data showed that in August, Beijing rose 2.4% year-on-year, a decline of 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, and a rise of 0.2% annually, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. From January to August, Beijing's CPI rose by 2% over the same period last year. Specifically, pork is still the biggest driving force behind the CPI rise. In August, food prices rose 4.6% year-on-year, falling 2.3 percentage points from last month, affecting a 0.71 percentage point increase in CPI. Pork prices rose 37.7% year-on-year, an increase of 8.8 percentage points over last month, affecting CPI by 0.41 percentage points. Meanwhile, the prices of alternatives such as chicken, mutton, beef and eggs rose by 10.8%, 9.9%, 9.2% and 3% respectively, affecting CPI by 0.15 percentage points.

"From a ring-to-ring perspective, with the tightening of pork supply in August and the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching and consumption substitution effect, the prices of eggs, beef, chicken and mutton rose by 5.4%, 3.8%, 3.2% and 1.6%, respectively." Interpretation of the Beijing Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics.

According to the data of Beijing New Land Market, in August this year, the weighted average wholesale price of white stripe pigs in the new land market was 13.32 yuan/kg, 24.95% higher than 10.66 yuan/kg in July, 24.49% higher than 10.7 yuan/kg in June and 49.66% higher than that of 8.9 yuan/kg in the same period last year.

"This is mainly affected by the previous pig pestilence superimposed on the pig cycle, the market supply overall tightening, prices continue to rise, and overall push up the CPI index." Wang Jun, chief economist of Central Plains Bank, said.

However, under the high price of pork, seasonal factors show that the August CPI index of the whole city has dropped 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The data show that although fresh vegetable prices rose by 6.1% annually, they fell by 13.2% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in the year, expanding by 7.4 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI by 0.26 percentage points. Meanwhile, the prices of fresh fruits and melons fell by 12.2% annually, driving the CPI down by 0.28 percentage points.

Li Chao team of Huatai Securities pointed out that food consumption price was mainly affected by the supply side in August. Fresh fruit prices fell as scheduled, vegetable prices remained stable and CPI growth slowed down as a whole.

"After the expansion of some vegetables this year, without adverse weather effects, the supply of some vegetables is significantly larger than that of the same period last year, which makes the price of some vegetables begin to fall in recent years compared with that of last year." Relevant person in charge of the Department of Market Statistics of New Places told the media. At the same time, the person in charge publicly pointed out that the supply of watermelons, melons, peaches, grapes and other fruits in the new market was gradually increasing. "This period is also a period of low fruit prices each year, which will continue until the end of the year or so. Prices will rise only in winter when fruits are stored and southern fruits are on the market in large quantities.

"It should be noted that the slowdown of CPI growth, in addition to seasonal factors, is largely due to the time to August, weakened by the influence of the previous year's tail warping factor." Wang Jun said.

"At present, the state frequently promulgates policies and measures to restore pig production capacity, while maintaining stable prices, so in the short term, there is little pressure for the price of pork tractors to rise sharply." But it will take time for pig production to recover, and pork prices will not fall sharply in the next year or so, Wang said. However, the proportion of pork in food consumption has declined, and the impact of price increases on CPI has slowed down. CPI will keep a moderate rise in the next six months.