IEA said oil demand will fall in the first quarter

In a recent monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the growth of global oil demand forecast in 2020 would be reduced by 365 thousand barrels per day to 825000 barrels per day, the lowest since 2011. Global oil demand is expected to fall 435000 BPD in the first quarter from the same period last year, the first time in more than a decade. According to the monthly report, global crude oil supply decreased by 800000 barrels / day to 1005 million barrels / day in January, and oil production of 14 OPEC countries is expected to decrease to 27.2 million barrels / day in the first quarter. The latest OPEC monthly report has cut the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2020 by 230000 barrels per day to 990000 barrels per day. In its short-term energy outlook report, the EIA recently cut the growth rate of global oil demand in 2020 by 310000b / D to 103000b / d. It seems that the decline of global oil demand growth in 2020 has become the consensus of major institutions. Global investors are looking forward to Russia's comments on the OPEC Technical Committee's proposal to reduce production by another 600000 barrels per day. The Kremlin said Russia has not yet decided on further action on production cuts and will announce its position on the OPEC agreement at the right time. In my opinion, Russia is unlikely to agree to deepen the agreement on production reduction, but it is likely to agree to extend the current agreement on production reduction, but it will wait until the OPEC + meeting in March to make a final decision. WTI's oil price is currently hovering around $50 / barrel, which does not rule out the possibility of further exploration of oil price in a short time. However, with the increase in oil demand in the second quarter, oil prices are expected to bottom out and rebound.