In 2019, the macro leverage ratio was 245.4%, up 6.1 percentage points

Unlike the decline in 2018, the macro leverage ratio rose unexpectedly in 2019. Recently, the national finance and development laboratory issued the report on the annual macro leverage ratio in 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the report). In 2019, China's macro-economic leverage ratio was 245.4%, up 6.1 percentage points over the previous year. In terms of quarters, the macro leverage ratio rose by 5.1, 0.7, 0.9 and - 0.6 percentage points respectively in the four quarters of last year, that is to say, after the sharp rise in the first quarter, the growth rate fell in the second and third quarters, and the growth rate fell in the fourth quarter, showing a high and low trend as a whole, basically consistent with the trend of economic growth. Liu Lei, a researcher at the national balance sheet research center of the national finance and development laboratory, told the first financial reporter that referring to the stable leverage path of the previous two years, although the macro leverage rate rose a little unexpectedly in 2019, given the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the excessive deleveraging in 2018 and other factors, it is reasonable that the leverage rate rose in 2019, and the growth of 6 percentage points is not counted High also reflects the determination of the policy authorities.

The report also predicted novel coronavirus pneumonia affected by the 2020, the economic growth is facing greater pressure, the rate of increase in macro leverage will probably be higher than in 2019. It is preliminarily predicted that the macro leverage ratio will rise by 10 percentage points in 2020. Looking back on the trend of macro leverage rate in 2019, in the first quarter, new RMB loans reached 6.3 trillion yuan, creating a historical peak; after entering the second quarter, the excessive growth of leverage rate was restrained, and new RMB loans decreased year on year; then in the third and fourth quarters, the slow growth of leverage rate continued, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the whole year, unlike the decline in 2018, the macro leverage ratio rose slightly by 6.1 percentage points in 2019. In terms of sub sectors, the residential sector is the main driving force for the rise of leverage. According to the report, the leverage ratio of the residential sector at the end of 2019 was 55.8%, up 3.7 percentage points from 52.1% at the end of 2018. Although the leverage ratio of the residential sector is still rising, the upward trend has slowed down. In 2019, the growth rate of short-term loans and retail sales of social consumer goods decreased significantly, which to some extent led to the decline of the growth rate of leverage ratio of residents.