Why is the decline in foreign trade of the petrochemical industry expanding?

According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was RMB 14.24 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points compared with the previous five months. Among them, exports were 7.71 trillion yuan, down 3%; imports were 6.53 trillion yuan, down 3.3%. Both exports and imports achieved positive growth in June.

However, from January to June, the total import and export volume of the petroleum and chemical industry was US$305.47 billion, a decrease of 14.8%, and the rate of decline expanded by 10.8 percentage points from the first quarter, accounting for 15.1% of the country's total import and export volume. Among them, the total export value was US$101.20 billion, a decrease of 9.8%; the total import value was US$204.27 billion, a decrease of 17.1%. The trade deficit was 103.08 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 23.2%.

Especially in June, the total import and export volume of the industry was 48.34 billion U.S. dollars, down 18.4%. Among them, the export value was 15.89 billion US dollars, a decrease of 20.6%; the import value was 32.45 billion US dollars, a decrease of 17.3%. The trade deficit was 16.56 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.8%.


Why is the trend of import and export trade in the petroleum and chemical industry different from that of the national import and export trade?

1. The export value of refined oil has changed from an increase to a decrease. Rubber products and fertilizers have fallen sharply, and organic chemicals have fallen slightly.

In the first half of the year, the export value of refined oil was 13.01 billion US dollars, down 19.1%, and in the first quarter was an increase of 8.9%; the export volume was 27.09 million tons, down 0.7%. The export value of rubber products was US$2017.51 billion, down 22.9%, and the rate of decline expanded by 5.6 percentage points from the first quarter; the export volume was 3.96 million tons, down 19.6%. The export volume of chemical fertilizers was US$2.65 billion, a decrease of 24.6%, which was 3.4% lower than the first quarter; the export volume was 11.910 million tons (physical volume), a decrease of 5.4%. The export volume of organic chemicals was US$23.75 billion, a decrease of 3.9%, which was 3.9% less than the first quarter; the export volume was 8.279 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%.

In general, the export volume of domestic traditional export chemical products (including refined oil) has mostly fallen. After all, the foreign epidemic has affected demand, and the prices of many products have also fallen. Dual factors have led to a decline in export volume.

2. The import volume of crude oil and natural gas has increased rapidly, but the prices have dropped significantly.

In the first half of the year, domestic crude oil imports were 269 million tons, an increase of 9.8%, and the growth rate was 4.8 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter; imports amounted to US$91.49 billion, a decrease of 21.9%. Imported natural gas was 48.624 million tons, an increase of 3.4%, and the growth rate was 1.7% faster than the first quarter; the import value was US$17.87 billion, a decrease of 15.5%. Among them, import crude oil in June was 53.181 million tons, a record high, an increase of 34.4%; imported natural gas was 8.333 million tons, an increase of 10.8%.

Crude oil and natural gas are not only major importers of the petrochemical industry, but also major importers of national trade products. Although the import volume has increased, the price has dropped so much that the import volume has dropped significantly. This is reflected in the level of trade (export volume), which means that the figures are not good.

3. In essence, we took advantage of the window period of declining international crude oil prices to increase imports, which is a huge benefit.

On the one hand, we increased our crude oil reserves (our crude oil production from January to June was 97.148 million tons, an increase of 1.7%; crude oil processing volume was 319 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. Therefore, three sets of static data indicate that China’s crude oil reserves in the first half of the year A net increase of 49 million tons, which is equivalent to an increase of nearly 33 days in the reserve period). On the other hand, crude oil prices continue to fall, which is good for downstream companies. After all, they can obtain low-price and sufficient raw materials.

4. No major structural changes have been found in the import and export trade of products in the whole industry.

According to the import and export data of key petrochemical products released by the customs in the first half of the year, in addition to the increase in crude oil and natural gas imports, the import of primary form plastics was 18.876 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 3.133 million tons, year-on-year Increased by 1.9%; exports of plastic products were US$34.20 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. These products are all related to epidemic prevention materials. (In the first half of the year, the export of textiles including masks increased by 32.4%, and the export of medical materials and medicines, medical instruments and equipment increased by 23.6% and 46.4% respectively).

In the first half of 2020, the export of refined oil was 33.763 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, which is a forced growth. Fertilizer is a special case, not only imported 4.873 million tons, down 26.0% year-on-year, but also exported 11.935 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year, which is rare in recent years. The main reason is that, on the one hand, the total output of chemical fertilizers nationwide in the first half of the year (reduced in pure form, the same below) was 28.039 million tons, down 6.4%. Among them, the output of nitrogen fertilizer was 18.324 million tons, a decrease of 0.6%; the output of phosphate fertilizer was 6.055 million tons, a decrease of 22.7%; the output of potash fertilizer was 3.599 million tons, an increase of 1.9% (indirectly affecting potash fertilizer imports); on the other hand, the global epidemic affected export trade Work properly.