22 kinds of chemical raw materials increased by more than 100%! Up to 320%!

Yesterday (22nd) morning, black products once again became the "main force" in the futures market. Thermal coal rose nearly 5%, coking coal rose 2.86%, hot roll rose 2.73%, and coke rose 1.85%. The steel sector in the A-share market also led the rise. As of the morning's close, the steel index rose 2.82%, Bayi Steel's daily limit among individual stocks, and Maanshan Iron & Steel's shares rose nearly 9%. In addition, the main screw thread rose by 1.36% to 5228 yuan, and the main screw steel contract hit a contract record high.

Recently, black products such as coal, steel, and iron ore have seen a straight rise. Many people have reported that "coal is crazy" has reappeared.

coal
On the 22nd, the price of thermal coal was 809.5 CNY/ton, an increase of 318.2 CNY/ton from the low value of 472 CNY/ton in 2020, an increase of 67.42%. On the 19th of this month, the main power of thermal coal rose 3.81% to 790.2 yuan, a record high since the 2013 contract was listed. At present, there is an obvious gap in the supply of coking coal. Shanxi is affected by environmental protection, and some coking coal production capacity has been suspended. Shandong's "action plan" has further strengthened the expectation of supply contraction.

Steel
On the 22nd, the domestic steel market was on the strong side, and the billet price was 4940 CNY/ton, an increase of 1940 CNY/ton from the 2020 low of 3000 CNY/ton, an increase of 64.67%. The recovery speed of steel mills on the supply side is accelerating, and there is still room for output to rise. Businesses are holding a wait-and-see attitude towards the price situation in the market outlook. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

Iron ore
On the 22nd, iron ore was quoted at 1127 CNY/ton, an increase of 616 CNY/ton or 120.55% from the 2020 low of 599 CNY/ton. Recently, the main force of iron ore has been trending strongly, setting new historical highs one after another, and the spot market has followed the positive trend. The transaction price of PB powder in Qingdao Port and Jingtang Port is all at 1,240 CNY/ton. On the 20th of this month, the main iron ore contract 2109 of the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose to 1,110 CNY/ton, a record high. Due to strong demand from Chinese steel mills, iron ore prices have been rising all the way, reaching $181.80/ton, the highest level since September 2011, which is a 9-year high.
Prices in the chemical industry "multiple", up by more than 300% from last year's low
While domestic black futures generally rose, chemical products also rose. Although the second quarter has just kicked off, many chemical products have "shown the limelight", reaching new highs, closing stocks, out of stock, out of stock, and ordering for 2 months, which shocked the chemical industry and downstream industries. Whether this rise is artificially high prices, or is it really breaking through the high values, let's take a look at the situation last year.

According to incomplete statistics, more than 40 kinds of raw materials in the chemical industry have risen from last year's lows. Among them, bisphenol A (320.95%), acetic acid (266.16%), and isobutyraldehyde (226.60%) surpassed the top three positions on the increase list. 22 kinds of raw materials including propylene glycol, pure benzene, n-butanol, and solid epoxy resin increased by more than 100%.

Bisphenol A: On the 21st, the price of Bisphenol A was 29466.67 CNY/ton, an increase of 22466.67 CNY/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 320.95%. Offers are scarce in East China, and Nanya Plastics has no offers for the time being. Lihuayi's bisphenol A plant is under maintenance, which is expected to be one week; Sinopec Mitsubishi will shut down the plant from April 10 to May 12. Holders offer firm offers, real orders are negotiated, downstream liquid resins continue to rise, and the supply of bisphenol A is tight.
Acetic acid: On the 21st, acetic acid was quoted at RMB 7,250/ton, an increase of RMB 5270/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 266.16%. The domestic acetic acid market is operating at a high level, the market supply continues to be tight, the downstream demand is strong, the manufacturer's inventory is limited, the short-term supply gap is difficult to make up, and the acetic acid market is operating firmly.
Isobutyraldehyde: On the 21st, isobutyraldehyde was quoted at RMB 15,350/ton, an increase of RMB 10,650/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 226.60%. Luxi Chemical's isobutyraldehyde rose by 3,200 CNY/ton in the month. After isobutyraldehyde stopped falling and rebounded at the end of March, the gains have gradually increased. As of the 20th, isobutyraldehyde closed at 14,800 CNY/ton, constantly refreshing historical highs. The downstream neopentyl glycol has an average annual operating rate of about 80%, and the isobutyraldehyde capacity gap is already over 100,000 tons.

Propylene glycol: On the 21st, propylene glycol was quoted at RMB 18,250/ton, an increase of RMB 12,650/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 225.89%. Global equipment maintenance has resulted in tight internal and external supply. At present, the raw material cyclopropyl is operating at a high level and steadily. Domestic factories are mainly delivering pre-orders, resulting in relatively insufficient domestic trade resources, and the downstream continues to just need to purchase.
Pure benzene: On the 21st, pure benzene was quoted at 7220 CNY/ton, an increase of 4920 CNY/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 213.91%. Sinopec raised the listing price by 300 CNY/ton to 7,300 CNY/ton. After the positive expectation was put into practice, the market was blocked due to insufficient downstream profitability and price transmission was blocked, and the intention to chase the increase weakened. Refer to 7300-7350 CNY/ton for spot negotiations.
Solid epoxy resin: On the 21st, solid epoxy resin was quoted at 37,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 23,700 CNY/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 178.2%. The price of solid epoxy resin has hit a 15-year high, and manufacturers have queued up for orders, no stock, and remind customers to be prepared for price increases at any time.
Propylene oxide: On the 21st, propylene oxide was quoted at RMB 18,056.25/ton, an increase of RMB 11,256.25/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 165.53%. The raw material propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has been under pressure. At present, there is no pressure on the shipment of propylene oxide plants, and the market continues to rise.
Liquid epoxy resin: On the 21st, liquid epoxy resin was quoted at 39,850 CNY/ton, an increase of 24,050 CNY/ton from the 2020 low price, an increase of 152.22%. Market offers in East China are at 40,500-41,000 yuan per ton in barrels. The raw material bisphenol A is tight and the trading is deadlocked. The other raw material, epichlorohydrin, is trending stable after it goes up, and the cost pressure is slowing down.

Lithium carbonate: On the 21st, lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 87,000/ton, an increase of RMB 49,500/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 132%. Driven by new energy vehicles and batteries, the current price of lithium carbonate products is one day, and Chile, the world's largest supplier of lithium raw materials, has recently closed its borders, which has an impact on the market by more than 20%. Supply is tight and demand continues to be strong. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will maintain an upward trend in the second quarter.
Polysilicon: On the 21st, the price of polysilicon was 88,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 48,000 CNY/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 120%. Polysilicon prices continue to run at a high level, and domestic manufacturers and import prices remain high. At present, domestic polysilicon manufacturers have successively signed orders for April, and a few large manufacturers have completed the signing. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to price, and the ex-factory price is firm.
Neopentyl glycol: On the 21st, neopentyl glycol was quoted at RMB 16,900/ton, an increase of RMB 9,650/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 133.10%. In the early stage, most neopentyl glycol factories received some orders in advance, and the sharp rise in isobutyraldehyde put a lot of pressure on the factories to deliver orders. The rise of isobutyraldehyde has pushed up the focus of the neopentyl glycol industry. In the downstream, polyester resin is affected by the price increase of neopentyl glycol and isobutyraldehyde. Currently, the quotation has been closed and no shipment will be made. Some polyester resin companies indicated that the price may surpass 17,000 CNY/ton. .

Silicone: On the 21st, the price of organic silicon was 28,333.33 CNY/ton, an increase of 14233.33 CNY/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 109.92%. Silicone manufacturers are eager to take orders, and most companies take orders in a controlled manner. The three friends of Elkem Silicone, Zhejiang Xin'an, Hubei Xingfa, Hengyecheng, Shandong Jinling, Zhejiang Zhongtian, Tangshan are temporarily closed, and Shandong Luxi and Shandong Dongyue are mainly used for their own use, and the actual order is negotiated.
TGIC: On the 21st, TGIC quoted 60,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 23,500 CNY/ton from the low price in 2020, an increase of 64.38%. TGIC manufacturers have released news on Moments of Friends and social platforms, claiming that there are no quotations currently being closed, no shipments are overdue, and shipments are delayed, and the spot is tight.

Since the beginning of the year, copper has skyrocketed by 35%, plastics has skyrocketed by 35%, aluminum has skyrocketed by 37%, and glass has skyrocketed by 30%... The price increase of black products such as steel and coal, as well as the high shocks of crude oil and the price increase of chemical products, is the trend of the procyclical sector. Price changes will bring tremendous pressure on their respective industrial chains and derivative industrial chains. According to industry insiders, whether it is the continued capacity reduction of the black series or the suspension of production in the chemical industry, the common denominator is the gradual decline in market inventories. In addition, the current overseas demand is driving huge, the domestic chemical market inventory continues to fall, and under the hot buying sentiment, "out of stock" and "no quotation" have become the norm. Order queues and price hikes will continue to be the situation in the first quarter. Continue to stage.