PTA, ethylene glycol and other polyester raw materials plummeted all the way

On the evening of May 19, the Standing Committee of the State Council once again spoke after a lapse of 7 days, calling for the supply of bulk commodities to stabilize prices and to curb unreasonable price increases. Relevant departments have taken actions one after another to "cool down" the rising trend of commodity prices. The policy side has continued to intensively voice for many days to effectively respond to excessive price increases. A series of response measures have achieved remarkable results, and nearly a hundred commodities have fallen in response.

Affected by the plunge in domestic commodities, polyester raw materials are also difficult to survive alone. On May 20, domestic crude oil futures fell more than 5.12%, PTA fell by 3.27%, ethylene glycol fell by 2.71%, and staple fiber fell by 3.50%.

It is understood that the reason for the decline in the price of some raw materials is related to the imbalance of supply and demand caused by the resistance of the terminal downstream to high prices. In addition, from "straight into the sky" to "sudden decline", the sharp turn of the raw material market is inseparable from the supervision of relevant departments, which shows that the current regulators are determined to curb the excessive rise of commodities.

PTA market analysis

On the cost side: oil prices are blocked, naphtha prices are weak, and the atmosphere for PX market negotiations is insufficient; a major manufacturer in Shandong has announced equipment maintenance news. The center of gravity of glacial acetic acid is temporarily stabilized, and downstream is just in need of follow-up.

On the supply side: The devices are restarting one after another, and the PTA operating rate is expected to return to around 85%. We will pay attention to whether there will be follow-up maintenance. At present, Sichuan Energy Investment 1 million tons/year, Zhongtai Petrochemical 1.2 million tons/year, Yizheng Chemical Fiber 350,000 tons/year, and Xinfengming Line 2 2.5 million tons/year have been restarted. At present, Hengli Line 5 250 The specific overhaul time of the 2.5 million tons/year PTA plant of Xinfengming Line 2 and Xinfengming Line 2 is unknown. We will pay attention to whether it will be overhauled in June; if not, the pressure on the supply side will increase significantly.

Demand side: polyester production and sales are weak in the off-season, factories have plans to reduce production, and PTA just needs to weaken. Early May-August is the traditional off-season for terminals. At present, there is a loss in slices. At the same time, some products such as polyester filament DTY are under heavy inventory. Recently, some factories have announced maintenance plans. (May) the polyester operating rate may drop to 90% in late May. nearby. Taking into account that the base of polyester production capacity is also increasing, the rigid demand for PTA will weaken slightly.

Glycol market analysis

Supply side: The ethylene glycol import volume in April was 730,000 tons, which was basically the same as that in March. However, according to the operating dynamics of overseas installations, it is a high probability event that the ethylene glycol import volume will rebound in the later period. Domestically, it was heard that the start-up time of the ethylene glycol plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical (800,000 tons/year on Line 1) was temporarily delayed by one week due to the problem of the oxygen plant. The plant was originally scheduled to start at the end of May, but it may be postponed to early June. In addition, the two 200,000-ton/year coal-to-ethylene glycol plants in Yongcheng, Henan were originally planned to be shut down for maintenance in late May, but the maintenance is currently delayed due to the production efficiency of related products, and the specific maintenance time is yet to be determined. Taking into account the size of the production capacity, at present, the supply side pressure in May is not strong, and the industry capacity supply pressure is postponed to June.

Demand side: polyester production and sales are weak in the off-season, factories have plans to reduce production, and ethylene glycol just needs to weaken. Early May-August is the traditional off-season for terminals. At present, there is a loss in slicing. At the same time, some products such as polyester filament DTY are under heavy inventory. Recently, some factories have announced maintenance plans one after another. In the latter half of the month, the polyester operating rate may drop to around 90%. Taking into account that the base of polyester production capacity is also increasing, the rigid demand for ethylene glycol will weaken slightly.

Market analysis of polyester staple fiber

On the cost side: crude oil fluctuates at a high level, PTA and ethylene glycol fluctuate, downstream polyester maintenance increases, demand weakens, and PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate and weaken.

Supply side: Due to the accumulation of polyester staple fiber enterprise inventory and the mid-year maintenance plan for some staple fiber devices, the spot market supply is expected to decrease. At present, a plant in Jiangsu has a total of 280,000 tons of staple fiber production capacity shut down for maintenance, a set of 250,000 tons of short fiber production capacity in Fujian, a set of 30,000 tons of short fiber production capacity is shut down for maintenance, and another company in Ningbo has reduced its production by 200 tons from early May. /Day, the Sichuan region's No. 1 plant plans to cut production by 2,000 tons in May, and the current operating rate of the staple fiber industry has dropped to 86.94%.

Demand side: At present, downstream polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn enterprises have a good processing fee space, and the operating rate has been relatively stable, and the raw material inventory of yarn enterprises is relatively neutral, and there is a certain degree of support in the market. However, recently dragged down by the drop in raw materials, the trading atmosphere in the pure polyester yarn market has been sluggish, yarn enterprises have accumulated inventory, and the willingness to ship goods has been strong, and the preferential margin has expanded. In terms of domestic trade, intermediary traders have ample stocks and are more resistant to the supply of goods after the rise, and are subject to more small orders. In terms of foreign trade, the number of export orders for polyester staple fiber is limited due to the fact that ocean freight rates remain high and the continued spread of overseas epidemics and other factors.

During this period of time, the days are indeed a bit sad for the textile bosses. The previous promotion did not get obvious results. The foreign epidemic situation continued to ferment, and foreign trade was more or less hindered. The overall domestic economic recovery was not bad, but the terminal The textile and apparel industry has not improved significantly, and it is undoubtedly difficult to reverse the current market situation.