Virus mutation! Many countries are 'blocked'! Chemical raw materials are on the rise!

Pesticide prices soared by 90%, orders are scheduled to September

India is currently the world's fourth largest producer of pesticides. From the perspective of technical materials alone, the domestic production capacity of major pesticide varieties in India in 2019 was 325,000 tons, the output was 217,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 67%. Affected by the decrease in operating rate of Indian factories, my country's agrochemical industry has already seen a rising market trend. The price of 95% glyphosate continues to hit a new high, and the actual transaction is referenced to 46-46,500 CNY/ton, and the annual price increase has exceeded 90% year-on-year. The company's pending orders have been scheduled to September, and there are still a small number of new orders. Potassium chloride prices have reached the third peak in history and are still continuing. The price of urea in many places continued to increase, with the price increase ranging from 10-50 yuan per ton, while the price of urea in Heilongjiang increased by 80 yuan per ton. If the epidemic continues to affect, some of the orders for technical medicines and intermediates will be expected to be taken over by domestic pesticide companies, and prices are expected to reach new highs.

Yellow phosphorus soared by 600 CNY/ton, a record high for a variety of products

In Southeast Asia, the severity of the epidemic in the Philippines is second only to Indonesia. As of 4 p.m. on June 15, the Philippines had 5,389 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia, with a total of 1327431 confirmed cases; 118 new deaths and a total of 22,963 deaths; the President of the Philippines previously announced that Local blockade measures until the end of June to try to contain the peak of the epidemic that appeared in April. The Palawan Province of the Philippines stated that due to the surge in confirmed cases of the new crown, the province declared a state of disaster. Analysts said that the Philippines “is not expected to return to its pre-epidemic output levels until the end of 2022.”

The Philippines mainly exports polyester chips, phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer products. It is the peak season for pesticide use in May-September. There is a gap in the supply of the pesticide industry. Coupled with the increase in overseas demand, the price of my country's phosphorus chemical industry has continuously increased. Yellow phosphorus products have risen by nearly 600 CNY/ton a week, and many products have reached new highs. .

Malaysia tightens epidemic prevention measures, domestic rubber industry chain will be tightly supplied

On June 15, the Ministry of Health of Malaysia released data on the coronavirus epidemic. In the past 24 hours, Malaysia has newly confirmed 5,419 new cases of new crown pneumonia, with a total of 667,876 confirmed cases; 6831 new cases cured, 593695 cured cases; 101 new deaths , A total of 4,069 deaths.

Since Malaysia implemented the nationwide "comprehensive lockdown" measures, the country's relevant departments have inspected 268 factories, of which 75 factories have been fined and 59 factories have been closed for violating epidemic prevention regulations.

Malaysia is an important energy and chemical resource country. Its main products include palm oil, rubber, petroleum and natural gas. It is the world's second largest producer of palm oil and related products and the third largest exporter of LNG. Taking Natural Rubber as an example, Malaysia is the world's fifth largest producer and exporter of natural rubber, accounting for nearly 4.13% of the world's output. Among them, nitrile gloves account for more than 60% of global production, making it the world's largest producer. At present, the supply of rubber on the market is decreasing. It is expected that my country's domestic rubber products and even downstream gloves and tire industries will also be in short supply, and tighter prices will be an inevitable trend.

Vietnam faces the impact of mutant virus, and textile orders return to my country

According to data from the Ministry of Health of Vietnam, from 18:00 on June 15 to 6:00 am on June 16, there were 90 newly confirmed cases of new crown in Vietnam and 1 newly imported case. As of 6 a.m. on June 16, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Vietnam has reached 9,567, and the number of imported confirmed cases has reached 1,647. Since April 27, the number of confirmed cases has reached 8087.

Since June 1, Hanoi, Vietnam has suspended the entry of international flights. Ho Chi Minh City has also suspended the entry of international flights until June 14. Vietnam's factories have ceased operations one after another, and the manufacturing industry has largely shut down. On average, nearly 12,000 companies exit the market every month, which is equivalent to 400 companies every day.

Vietnam, known as the second factory in the world, has the textile industry one of its most important national pillar industries. As its second largest export industry, its exports account for about 12% of the country's GDP. Affected by the new crown epidemic, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports in 2020 reached 35.69 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 9.9% from 2019. Similar to India, under the impact of the mutant virus, some textile orders have returned to my country. In May, my country's clothing exports were 12.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 37.1% year-on-year. At the same time that textile companies have hot orders, some companies have begun to rush to purchase raw materials in reserve, and the prices of textile raw materials have also been rising. From January to April, the export volume of filament yarn increased by nearly 60%. From the perspective of price, the overall increase was 40% to 60%. Compared with the same period last year, the increase of conventional filament yarn was 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan per ton.

Thailand withdraws its plan to lift the ban, China's rubber imports will be in short supply

Thailand started the third wave of the epidemic in early April. So far, there have been about 60 clusters of infection "hot spots" in Bangkok in entertainment venues, residential communities, construction worker camps, and markets. According to the latest news, Bangkok's plan to partially relax restrictions has been cancelled by the government.

The total value of the Thai chemical industry is more than one trillion baht, and it has perfect conditions from production to logistics and transportation. Chemical companies also play an important role in supporting industries such as food processing, plastic products, detergents, textiles, automobiles, furniture, medicine, and water purification. Major chemical export products include rubber products, rubber, and plastic pellets. According to public data, my country's natural rubber self-sufficiency rate is about 13.70% in 2020, and the self-sufficiency rate is less than 20% for 7 consecutive years. It is very dependent on imports. However, domestic natural rubber is in short supply, which makes the price downside even lower and will continue to remain high.

Many countries are in a quagmire! The supply of raw materials in the chemical market is seriously inadequate

At present, Southeast Asian countries and regions such as India and Vietnam, as well as Asian countries such as Pakistan, Cambodia, and Indonesia, are also suffering from the impact of the coronavirus epidemic. The severe epidemic situation in these areas that are in "distressed waters" has undoubtedly affected the normal operation of the local manufacturing industry. The chemical industry chain has also suffered huge losses, production has dropped significantly, and supply has been restricted. Overlapped ocean freight rates continue to increase, and the foreign trade industry can be described as pressing the "pause button." Whether it is the cut-off of the supply of chemical raw materials such as rubber, or the backflow of orders in the textile, agrochemical, medical, Pigment, and dye industries in Southeast Asian countries, it will ultimately aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in my country's domestic chemical industry. Judging from the current situation of repeated epidemics overseas, it is difficult for a major recovery and improvement in the short term, and the prices of domestic chemical products in my country will also increase unabated.