A Variety of Chemical Raw Materials Fell for 7 Consecutive Years! Weak Demand!

Following the "order shortage" that caused more than 70 chemical companies to close their orders without quoting The 90% at the beginning of the year has dropped to the current 54%, which has fallen to a 2-year low. The reason why the operating rate of the entire industry has dropped to 50% is the decline in profitability and the sharp decline in average profit. The profit of some chemical industries is only 33 CNY/ton, and it is impossible to make money without work.

The operating rate is 5-7%! Weakening of market demand for various chemicals

It sounds bizarre to reduce production and reduce load, but in fact this is by no means a whim, because many manufacturers in the chemical industry have taken such measures to "short-term safety."

paraxylene

Recently, the operating rate of domestic paraxylene is more than 70%, and the operating rate of paraxylene in the northwest region is about 50%. Due to certain restrictions on the transportation of raw materials in the northwest region, the operating rate of on-site devices is relatively low. The operating rate of PX plants in Asia remains low. Overall, the operating rate of paraxylene plants in Asia is around 60%. The downstream PTA and textile industry prices have fallen. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene may drop slightly in the later period.

Phthalic anhydride

Shijiazhuang Bailong Chemical's phthalic anhydride plant is running stably, with a production capacity of 80,000 tons, and the plant's operating rate is around 70%.

asphalt

From the perspective of the supply side, the overall operating rate is not high, the operating level is maintained at a low level, the supply remains low, and the trend of destocking continues. From the demand side, the overall demand is weak, high prices hinder demand, speculative demand increases, the north just needs procurement support, and the south is rainy, so it is difficult to increase demand.

PTA

In the first half of the year, PTA maintenance maintained a high level, with an average operating rate of 80.5%, which was nearly 7 percentage points lower than the 21-year average. This week, the domestic PTA market followed the decline, and the decline was obvious. The operating rate of the PTA industry was around 77%. In addition to the annual maintenance plan for the current plant, unplanned maintenance due to profit deviation and PX tension has also increased.

Chlorinated Paraffin

In the first ten days of June, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell slightly, and there were price differences in various regions, and the operating rate of enterprises was not high. The downstream demand was flat, and the supply and demand of chlorinated paraffin were weak. In mid-June, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell again to the end of the month.

PVC

Recently, the domestic spot market of PVC continued to decline, and the futures price fell for 13 consecutive working days, suppressing the sentiment of the spot market. Downstream enterprises and traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, and they are cautious in purchasing goods, and their willingness to purchase is not strong. The PVC spot market is not good for shipments. At present, PVC is in the off-season, domestic demand is weak, market transactions are not good, and the operating rate is also low. The accumulated inventory is obvious, and the market confidence is insufficient.

Adipic acid

The operating rate of adipic acid was mainly flat compared with last week, and is currently maintained at around 6.5%. Prices continued to move lower, with a weekly loss of 1.48%. The market price range of adipic acid over the weekend is 11800-12000 CNY/ton. The market demand is sluggish, the manufacturers are not delivering goods smoothly, and the inventory pressure is obvious.

Neopentyl Glycol

The weather is gradually turning warmer, the terminal industry of neopentyl glycol has entered the off-season, and manufacturers have accumulated inventory of finished products, which restricts the increase in the operating rate of the industry.

Although the above chemical products with reduced operating rates seem to be few and far between, in fact, in the complex chemical market, the dynamics of any chemical product can cause a butterfly effect. Downstream industries, manufacturing and other industries have low market conditions and plummeting sales, and the demand for coatings, chemicals, and building materials will also decline. Neopentyl glycol and isobutyraldehyde in the resin industry chain will also be affected, PVC in the plasticization industry chain, PTA in the textile industry chain, and various derivative chemicals will be pushed to a colder winter. able to survive unscathed.

Crash! A variety of chemical raw materials fell for 7 consecutive days

The operating rate of many chemical industries is low, the main factor is that the demand group is in a weak position, and the high price hinders the demand. At present, the north is drought and the south is flooded, and the demand is difficult to increase. In the case of reduced orders, chemical companies can only reduce the operating rate and actively slow down a series of processes such as normal production, transportation, and sales in order to avoid inventory accumulation or solve the existing inventory pressure.

In addition to the reduction in operating rates, the chemical industry has also made the ultimate self-help measure-cutting prices. According to incomplete statistics from the Coatings Purchasing Network, the prices of some chemical products have fallen for 7 consecutive years, with the price falling by more than 6,000 CNY/ton. The entire chemical market is in a state of "collapse".

Neopentyl glycol has fallen for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative price drop of 4,850 CNY/ton, and the current price is 11,300 CNY/ton.
BDO has fallen for seven consecutive years, with a cumulative price drop of 1,900 CNY/ton, and the current price is 20,050 CNY/ton.
Bisphenol A has fallen for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative price drop of 1,850 CNY/ton, and the current price is 12,900 CNY/ton.
Epichlorohydrin has fallen for seven consecutive years, with a cumulative price drop of 1,816 CNY/ton, and the current price is 15,950 CNY/ton.
n-Butanol has fallen for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative price drop of 1,650 CNY/ton, and the current price is 8,150 CNY/ton.
DOP has fallen for seven consecutive years, with a cumulative price drop of 1,620 CNY/ton, and the current price is 9,720 CNY/ton.
Butanone fell for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative price drop of 933 CNY/ton, and the current price is 10,150 CNY/ton.
Acetone has fallen for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative price drop of 540 CNY/ton, and the current price is 5575 CNY/ton.
Phenol has fallen for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative price drop of 512 CNY/ton, and the current price is 10,575 CNY/ton.
Octanol has fallen for six consecutive years, with a cumulative price drop of 1,900 CNY/ton, and the current price is 9,143.75 CNY/ton.
Liquid epoxy resin has fallen for six consecutive years, with a cumulative price drop of 1,375 CNY/ton, and the current price is 22,325 CNY/ton.
Isobutyraldehyde has fallen for five consecutive years, with a cumulative price drop of 6,250 CNY/ton, and the current price is 7,400 CNY/ton.

In addition, the prices of raw materials in the coatings industry chain and related derivative industry chains basically showed a downward trend. MDI fell by 19.05% during the year, propylene oxide fell by 38.26% during the year, adipic acid fell by 2.42% during the year, and silica fell by 5.93% during the year. Rutile titanium dioxide fell by 0.48%, butylene glycol fell by 26.78%, n-propanol fell by 2.27%, ethyl acetate fell by 2.25%, butanone fell by 6.96%.

It is not difficult to see that the current operating rates of dozens of chemical products are all low, which can be called active "laying down". If it is said that it is the "Buddha system" of the enterprise, no one will believe it if it does not care about profit and loss. The fundamental reason is the joint pressure of upstream and downstream, especially the shortage of orders in the downstream. Many coating companies said that there were no orders anyway, and no one would buy them if the price was lowered. Instead, they would lock the price of the product at a low point, which would affect the progress of future price increases. Moreover, the production line's full firepower brings more cost increases such as water, electricity and gas, and huge pressure on staff wages. It is better to stop and talk slowly. It is possible to reduce the burden and reduce production to 50%.

Judging from the current market situation, the overall national market is in a downward trend. Many downstream industries such as automobiles, real estate, furniture, and home appliances are in a downward trend in sales. Force majeure such as the epidemic cannot be quickly eased in the near future. The "production cut" plan will not be a joke. But whether it will stop production after the production cut, and whether it will be a complete shutdown after the reduction of the burden, maybe no one can speculate.