Power coal market: the market is under pressure in peak season

Last week, the domestic power coal market was weak, the price of coal in the production area fell too much and rose little, the port market continued to be cold, and the price of coal fell steadily. At present, although it is in the peak season of traditional coal consumption, the overall downstream demand performance is poor, the terminal inventory remains high, and the coal price is still under great pressure. Near the end of the year, the production tasks of some large mines in the production area have been basically completed, and the output has declined. In addition, in recent years, the environmental protection and safety inspection of the production area are strict, and the number of coal mines that have been shut down has increased. On the whole, the supply side has been tightened, but the downstream demand continues to be weak. Although the daily coal consumption of the power plant continues to run at a high level in the near future, the stock of the power plant is high, and the long-term cooperation is mainly realized, and the demand for market coal procurement.

And some power plants are still actively importing coal. Under multiple factors, the overall performance of the power coal market is weak. This week's trading in the northern port market continued to be cold. Affected by the downturn in terminal demand, some traders' quotations were loose, and the downstream prices were severely depressed. The port's mainstream coal prices fell steadily, and the market wait-and-see mood further increased. The overall market transaction was stalemate. Now the main flow quotation of 5500 kcal power coal is 545-550 CNY/ton, and the quotation of 5000 kcal is 483-488 CNY/ton. Inventory. Recently, the decline of port inventory has weakened. As of December 12, the inventory of major ports around the Bohai Sea was 23.881 million tons, down 420000 tons on a month on month basis, down 1.736 million tons on a year-on-year basis. In terms of imported coal, due to the need of winter storage and supply guarantee and cost control, many major power generation enterprises in coastal areas are still actively importing power coal. It is expected that in December, China's imported coal will remain between 15-18 million tons. Recently, domestic power plants have successively invited bids for imported coal to pass customs from January to February.

It is expected that a large number of imported coal will be supplemented in January next year. The coal market is likely to turn into a downturn again, and the price will face downward pressure. On the whole, the restrictions on imported coal are loose this year, and the impact of imported coal on the domestic market is large. According to the latest data from the customs, in November, China imported a total of 20.781 million tons of coal, an increase of 1.628 million tons, or 8.50% year on year, and a decrease of 4.904 million tons, or 19.09% month on month. From January to November, China imported 2992.936 million tons of coal, which has already exceeded the level of the whole year of last year, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. In terms of the downstream, the temperature of the whole country has picked up recently. According to the weather report, at present, the temperature of most parts of the country is higher than that of the whole year, especially in Jiangnan and Northeast China. Under this abnormal warm weather pattern, the demand for electricity is weakened, and the daily coal consumption of the power plant can decline.

Moreover, the power plant is still dominated by the consumption of inventory, and the long-term cooperative transportation is enough to meet the demand, and the demand for external mining As of December 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.589 million tons, with a decrease of 332000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 1.056 million tons; the daily coal consumption was 740000 tons, with an increase of 10000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 2000 tons; the available days were 22.4 days, with a decrease of 0.8 days and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 days. At present, many places have issued environmental protection policies in response to heavy pollution weather. Affected by this, downstream enterprises stop and limit production more, and terminal demand continues to weaken. According to Zhongyu information, at present, the power coal market is mixed with advantages and disadvantages, and the supply will remain weak under the environmental inspection and safety reduction at the end of the year. However, under the high inventory and environmental protection staggered peak production in the downstream, the demand is flat, the supply and demand are weak, and the policy rate of imported coal will not be limited in January. Therefore, it is expected that in the traditional peak season, although the downward space of coal price is limited, it will still maintain a weak operation.