Economy in November exceeded expectations: replenishment of inventory cycle

GDP grew by 6.2% in the first three quarters. Judging from the situation in the fourth quarter, some positive changes have taken place in the main indicators in November. It is necessary and conditional to achieve the expected annual growth target. Some economic indicators improved in November, as predicted by the return of PMI to the boom range six months later. On December 16, the National Bureau of statistics released the economic operation data in November, and the growth rates of industry, service industry and consumption all rebounded. Among them, the added value of industries above Designated Size rose back to the growth rate of more than 6% four months later, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of last month. Fu Linghui, a spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said at the press conference of the state new office that in November, under the influence of a series of policies, the economic operation had undergone positive changes, and the overall steady and steady economic operation had made further progress.

This fully shows that China's economy does have strong resilience, potential and swing space. However, there is still downward pressure on economic operation, and the next step is to continue to do a good job of "six stability". According to the 21st century economic report, the recovery of industrial production in November was related to the replenishment of inventory in some industries, the acceleration of construction of real estate, the increase of Christmas export orders, etc.; the recovery of consumption was related to the promotion of "double 11" and the gradual effectiveness of automobile consumption policies. For the economic operation of the market institutions in the fourth quarter, the optimistic analysis shows that the economy shows signs of stabilizing, while some believe that the monthly data fluctuate greatly, which needs further observation. Among the "replenishment of inventory" cycle or various economic indicators launched in November, the largest and the most unexpected recovery is the industrial production data. In November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.2% year on year, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, the manufacturing industry grew by 6.3%, 1.7 percentage points faster than last month. In terms of industries, the automobile manufacturing industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, textile industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry accelerated in November.

For example, in November, the added value of automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% year-on-year, which led the cumulative growth rate to become positive for the first time in the year. In terms of production of major industrial products, the production of copper, steel, cement, automobiles, crude oil, etc. was accelerated in November. For example, in November, the average daily production of cement reached 83000 tons, the highest in the year (next to the output in March). "Industrial production data in November confirmed the recovery of PMI. The recovery of industrial production is mainly caused by domestic factors. Some industries began to replenish inventory. The cycle power of replenishing inventory is sustainable, and the effect of early counter cycle policy is gradually emerging. At present, the foundation for stabilization is not very solid. There is still a lot of uncertainty about whether the data can continue to rebound. " Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of Bank of Communications (5.540, 0.00, 0.00%) Financial Research Center, told 21st century economic reporter. Luo Zhiheng, chief macro researcher of Evergrande Research Institute, told the 21st century economic reporter that at present, the industry as a whole is still de stocking, but some industries, such as ferrous metals, cement, automobiles, etc., are consuming more in the early stage and have low inventory, so they start to replenish the inventory. In addition, the growth of new real estate construction in August, September and October was relatively strong.

Restricted by the tightening of real estate financing, developers need to rush to start construction and promote capital recovery, which also led to the recovery of ferrous metal, cement and other production in November. In November, PMI returned to the boom zone six months later, with new export orders still below the boom and bust line, but the decline narrowed. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, said the index of new export orders picked up, which was related to the increase of overseas orders at Christmas. "Replenishment of inventory" is considered by some institutions to be one of the positive factors in the economic operation in 2020. According to the report of the research group of China macroeconomic forum of Renmin University of China, the economic growth rate may fall in 2020, but there is no need to be pessimistic, because some cyclical forces will have inflection point changes, including the rebound of enterprise inventory cycle bottom, the excessive inventory removal in the early stage, which will provide more space for enterprises to replenish inventory in 2020. Fu Linghui said that industrial production accelerated in November, with 80% of industries and 60% of products accelerating. The structure of industrial production continues to be optimized, and the high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry maintain relatively rapid growth.

Driven by the upgrading of industry and residents' consumption, some new products have a strong growth momentum, including smart watches, 3D printing equipment, charging piles, etc. Under the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, promoting the development of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, the added value of private enterprises increased by 8.9% year on year in November, significantly faster than the growth of all industries above designated size. Another significant improvement in real consumption growth is consumption. In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3809.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, a new high in nearly five months, with a growth rate of 0.8 percentage points higher than that of last month. From the perspective of nominal growth rate, the growth rate of communication equipment, home appliances, cosmetics, tobacco, alcohol and beverage and other categories accelerated in November, and the decline of automobile sales narrowed.