Power coal: up and down is not easy

Power coal: it's not easy to rise and fall. Generally speaking, Beigang port and Yangtze River port operate in low inventory, some goods are in short supply, traders are in better mood, and their prices are rising. However, due to the influence of import coal clearance and pessimistic expectation in the future, it's difficult to accept the high price, and the price is in a stalemate, so it's not easy to rise and fall. This week, the power coal market as a whole maintained stable operation, the supply and demand of coal mines in the production area were weak, and the price was stable with a small rise and fall. Port coal is affected by the decrease of year-end shipment and the slight improvement of demand, the rapid decline of inventory and the improvement of traders' sentiment. However, the downstream is not willing to accept the high price and the price is stable. When the bidding for imported coal is scarce and the market releases more goods, the transaction is cold and the price drops. In terms of supply: the operation rate in Shanxi has declined significantly, mainly due to the impact of safety inspection. There are a large number of coal mines that have been shut down. The output of coal mines in production is normal, the inventory is low, and the willingness to hold a firm price is strong. In Inner Mongolia, due to the impact of snowfall, the coal hauling car is reduced, the inventory is increased, the price of lump coal is decreased, and the price of final coal is temporarily stable, but it is predicted that the price will not rise well in the later period due to the decrease of port shipment.

Affected by the good demand of coking plants, the coal price in Yulin District, Shaanxi Province increased by about 10 yuan in the stable period; the delivery of Shenfu coal mine was general, the output of some coal mine production tasks was reduced or sales were suspended, and the price slightly increased or decreased by 5-10 yuan. Near the end of the year, the funds collected by the shippers decreased the shipment. The average daily transfer in volume of the four ports in the North decreased by 100000 tons on a weekly basis, while the downstream demand slightly improved. This Sunday's average transfer out volume on a weekly basis increased by 70000 tons on a weekly basis, resulting in a rapid decline in the port's inventory and a drop of 1.77 million tons on a weekly basis. The port's low sulfur coal supply was in short supply, traders' sentiment improved, the quotation rose, the overall transaction was stable, and the transaction price was stable Lattice is still around the index. At the same time, the inventory of ports along the Yangtze River has also declined rapidly, with the weekly to environmental ratio dropping by 500000 tons. The traders in the river also adopt the strategy of low inventory, and hurry to ship before the end of the year. Affected by the high freight into the river, the willingness to store goods before the end of the year is insufficient. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, and the inventory is still at a high level despite a slight downward movement under the supply of Changxie and imported coal. Considering that the imported coal will be cleared in January, the willingness of the downstream power plants to replenish the inventory has not been significantly improved, and the willingness to accept the high price is not strong.

The daily consumption of inland power plants has increased, the level of coal supply has also improved, and the rate of destocking has slowed down compared with the previous period, but the inventory is still at a high level compared with the same period last year, and it is expected that the later period is still dominated by destocking. In terms of imported coal market, this week's bidding for power plants was rare, and the market inquiry was cold. Meanwhile, the expectation of foreign mines for the later market fell. There were many orders in January, with few transactions and falling prices. Among them, the decline of Australian coal is relatively large, mainly due to the drop of 2 US dollars in sea freight within one week. Although the current CIF transaction is lower than the previous period, the price advantage is weak compared with domestic coal, and the buyer's purchase intention is insufficient. In general, due to the low inventory operation of Beigang port and Yangtze River port, some goods are in short supply, traders' mood is improving, and the quotation is rising. However, due to the influence of import coal clearance and the pessimistic expectation of the future market, it is difficult to accept the high price, the price is in a stalemate, and the rise and fall are not easy. Origin index: as of December 19, Yulin's 5800 kcal index was 373 yuan, down 1 yuan on a weekly basis; Ordos's 5500 kcal index was 322 yuan, up 1 yuan on a weekly basis; Datong's 5500 kcal index was 390 yuan, flat on a weekly basis. Port index: as of December 19, the cci5500 index was at 548 yuan, flat on a weekly basis, while the cci5000 index was at 486 yuan, flat on a weekly basis. The CCI import 5500 index was $64.0, down $1.5 on a weekly basis, while the CCI import 3800 index was $41.5, down $0.5/ton on a weekly basis.

Production area data: according to the Fenwei production, transportation and sales data, as of December 18, the average operating rate of 66 coal mines in the "Sanxi" area fell 5.96% on a weekly basis, of which the operating rate in Shanxi decreased 14.29%; the operating rate in Shaanxi increased 4.34% on a weekly basis, and the operating rate in Inner Mongolia decreased 6.75%. The weekly cycle ratio of total inventory increased by 0.84%. Coal production profit rose 0.78% on a weekly basis. Transit data: northern port inventory: as of December 20, Qinhuangdao Port inventory was 5.47 million tons, down 480000 tons from last week. Downstream data: duyen Hai Power Plant: as of December 20, the daily consumption of six duyen Hai power plants was 762600 tons, with a rise of 22600 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a total inventory of 16125000 tons, and a drop of 330000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio. National key power plants: as of December 14, the inventory of national key power plants was 91.99 million tons, with a decrease of 420000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio; the coal supply on that day was 4.19 million tons, with a decrease of 220000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, with a consumption of 4.48 million tons and an increase of 60000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio. Several events worthy of attention this week: 1. The production of coal mines near the end of the year. Near the end of the year, the number of coal mines shut down increased, the supply further contracted, whether the port shipping will further reduce. 2. Customs clearance of imported coal in January. According to the current situation, the market said that the import coal in January would be cleared normally, and the number of customs clearance is expected to be more than that in December, but the number will be reduced compared with that in January last year.