Is the market really short of coal?

In the morning of February 13, the coal plate index was once red. By midday, the coal (CITIC) index was down 0.40%, while Meijin energy and Shanmei International were up slightly. The reporter of Shanghai Stock Exchange learned from people familiar with the Shaanxi coal market that recently, the transaction price of a coal mine in Shenmu, Shaanxi Province increased significantly compared with the starting price, and the transaction price of the final coal 1 increased by 120 CNY/ton compared with the starting price, causing industry consternation. In addition, according to the information released by Yulin coal trading center, recently Shaanxi coal group's two major coal mines bid online, and the transaction price rose sharply. Among them, caojiatan coal mine has 6200 cards of mixed coal, with the starting price of 380 CNY/ton and the bidding price of 465 CNY/ton. Small Baodang coal mine 5600 cards mixed coal, starting price 350 CNY/ton, transaction price 415 CNY/ton.

Does the soaring price of coal in the production area indicate a sharp shortage of supply? Will it be transmitted to the middle and lower reaches in the future? Recently, the reporter interviewed people related to the origin, port and downstream enterprises on these issues. Origin: novel coronavirus infection and joint control mechanism was held at the press conference held by the State Council in February 11th. The coal mine production rate reached 57.8%. Cong Liang, Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission and Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the coal mine production rate had reached over 30%. At a telephone survey organized by e-coal.com on February 12, a person in charge of transportation and marketing in Shanxi Province said that the recent resumption of production in the production area was divided. Taking Shanxi as an example, most of the coal mines in the province are state-owned enterprises, and the rate of resumption is relatively fast, with the proportion of resumption reaching 60-70%. The recovery of state-owned coal mines in Yulin area is similar. However, private coal mines tend to hold a wait-and-see attitude. "This year, the Spring Festival was earlier.

Most of the coal mines had a holiday before the outbreak escalated on January 20, and a large number of employees from other places returned home." According to the head of a coal enterprise in Inner Mongolia, one of the major problems faced by the coal mine resumption is that the staff must be isolated for 14 days before returning to work, which leads to a slow resumption of production in many coal mines. Even if the resumption of production, the daily production only accounts for one third to one quarter of the design capacity. The frequent occurrence of high price in coal auction is not the high price in coal mine, but mainly due to the small amount of investment, causing market speculation. According to the person in charge, the resumption of state-owned coal mining enterprises will speed up day by day, and the resumption of private coal mines in Shaanxi and Mongolia may be postponed to the end of February. According to people familiar with the matter, coal long-distance transportation is also facing difficulties. Due to the need of epidemic prevention in different regions, many more procedures have been added for trans provincial transportation, and passes in different regions are not recognized by each other. In addition, some time ago, the price of coal from the origin and the price of coal from the port were hanging upside down. Port and downstream enterprises: the overall supply situation is guaranteed. As of February 12, the domestic coal port inventory totaled 7031 million tons, an increase of 410000 tons compared with January 15, ending a seven week continuous decline.

After the Spring Festival last year, China's coal port inventory increased by 3.69 million tons, or 5.6%. The inventory of ports around Bohai Sea decreased significantly, with the inventory data of 14.673 million tons on February 12. On the same day, in addition to the increase in Qinhuangdao port, the rest of the port data continued to decline. Although stocks are low, coal prices are only up slightly at present. According to the China electricity coal purchase price index released by China electricity Union, the price of 5500 kcal electricity coal on December 12 was 571 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton from the previous day. In February, the monthly long-term cooperative price of Shenhua 5500 kcal power coal was increased by 7 yuan to 562 CNY/ton. A person familiar with port coal logistics said in a telephone survey that a market coal price rose to 575 CNY/ton, but there was no deal. "At present, the inventory of ports in East China, jiangnei and South China has increased significantly." People familiar with the coal transportation in the Yangtze River port said that the coal storage in 13 ports in the Yangtze River increased by 2.48 million tons after the Spring Festival compared with that before the Spring Festival.

According to the commonly used observation indicators in the industry, the average available days of six coastal power plants reached 44.9 days, which was also in the state of no shortage of coal. Power plant personnel said that since the resumption of work this year was significantly later than that of previous years, the daily consumption level of power plant is significantly lower than that of the same period of previous years, and the supply of Changxie coal is stable, so the pressure to ensure supply in key areas including Hubei Province is not great. In the next stage, the resumption speed will be accelerated, and the daily consumption level of the power plant will also rise, but there will be no rapid and substantial increase. At the same time, with the hydropower output and extra high voltage external power transmission, it is expected that large power plants will not be short of coal. Many people in the coal industry believe that coal prices will rise steadily in the short term, and supply and demand will be unbalanced or lead to local fluctuations. Overall supply, especially for key areas and large-scale power consumption enterprises, will be guaranteed.