Relative Balance of Supply and Demand Power Coal Price Rises Steadily

Recently, Daqin Railway has entered the autumn for intensive repair. Coal railway transportation has been restricted. The supply of goods at the harbor has dropped significantly compared with that before maintenance. The seller's tender sentiment is firm. At the same time, the long-term high temperature and the rapid ebb of hydroelectric power drive the high consumption of electricity and coal, and the terminal multi-rigid replenishment storehouse. Although the North purchasing has warmed up, the overall situation is still weak, and the buyer's counteroffer strength is strong. This week, the effect of holidays is prominent. Coal supply and demand are relatively balanced along the coast. Coal prices are mainly flat, and some high-quality coal sources are rising slightly.

The price of power coal is running steadily on September 18. Qinhuangdao Coal Network released the latest data, which showed that the price index of power coal around Bohai Sea closed at 578 CNY/ton, which was the same as the previous period. On spot, the spot price of 5500 calorific calorific calorific calorific power coal is 586 CNY/ton, which is the same as the previous period; the spot price of 5000 calorific power coal is 517 CNY/ton, which is 1 CNY/ton higher than the previous period.

This cycle, the trading price range of power coal specifications around Bohai Port rose steadily, moderately and slightly. Among them, the price of Qinhuangdao Port 4500 calorific power coal is 455-465 CNY/ton, 5000 calorific power coal is 505-515 CNY/ton, 5500 calorific power coal is 570-580 CNY/ton, and 5800 calorific power coal is 600-610 CNY/ton, which are the same as the previous period. In the part of research and development of Qinhuangdao Coal Network, it is considered that the supply and demand of the coastal coal transportation market have changed in stages and the market price has been supported. The following factors make the coastal coal price continue to improve in the previous period:

The overhaul of the main coal transportation railway corridors began on September 15, and the average daily traffic volume of Daqin Line after overhaul began. Continuous operation at 1.05 million tons level, with an average daily reduction of about 100,000 tons. At the same time, due to the approaching of Daqing, strict security and environmental protection inspection of the origin, limited production activities, stable and rising pit prices, traders affected by the cost, shipping enthusiasm is poor. Overall, the coastal coal market supply is tightening, some traders cover up, waiting for the impact of maintenance to deepen, the market bullish mood warming. The daily consumption of coastal power plants is about 700,000 tons, which is about 100,000 tons higher than that of the same period last year, and the inventory is under 16 million tons for 8 consecutive days. With the increase of pallets in the coastal market and the influence of the import coal level control policy, the activity of domestic trade market has increased, and the buyer's counter-offer has weakened.

However, the downstream power plant units have entered the maintenance period. Although the daily consumption is temporarily higher than that of the same period last year due to the rise of temperature, it is expected that the daily consumption will be significantly reduced starting next week. In addition, in recent years, the impact of Da-Qin line maintenance on the market is not significant, the specific impact of this year still needs to be observed. Buyers and sellers enter the game period, and subsequent coal prices may oscillate.

Overall, looking at the situation, the "autumn tiger" ravages the coastal areas, and with the arrival of dry season ahead of time, the normalized "low daily consumption, high inventory" has a great reversal, and the inventory consumption has gradually increased along the industrial chain, but the "autumn tiger" is more difficult to sustain, and the "peak season" illusion of coal consumption will eventually decline, completing the transition to the off season. In addition, this year's railway overhaul is half a month ahead of schedule, the winter storage market is different from previous years, with a weakening trend. In addition, production slows down before and after major activities, industrial demand or is weak. Therefore, with the effective supplement of short-term and short-term, it is difficult to improve the enthusiasm of terminal northward purchasing in the short term, and the coastal coal price is weak and stable.

From Qinhuangdao Coal Network, we know that the recent high consumption of electricity and coal, a small number of pallets released in the market, coupled with fewer available ships, the relatively tight demand for timely ships, in addition, the rise in oil prices also increases the cost of shipowner transportation. Therefore, under the influence of many factors, the domestic marine coal price continues to rise in this period.