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    Home > The long-term positive trend has not changed China's economy

    The long-term positive trend has not changed China's economy

    Echemi 2019-11-12

    Economic-Operation

    In the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP grew by 6.2% year on year. Under the background of sluggish world economic growth and increasing trade protectionism, it is not easy for China's economy to achieve such achievements. In fact, since 2012, China's economic growth performance has been quite stable, and the quarterly GDP growth rate has been kept between 6% and 8%. Under the guidance of the new development concept, the supply side structural reform has been further promoted, the "six stability" work has been continuously strengthened, and high-quality development has taken new steps. Looking forward to the future, we are full of confidence in the sound development of China's economy. Economic risks are effectively controlled. In 2018, the growth rate of leverage ratio in China's real economy sector has achieved a slight decline in the same ratio, and the macro leverage ratio has been effectively controlled as a whole. At the same time, China's national savings rate is still high, and the government also has large-scale net assets, which enhances China's ability and confidence to deal with debt risk and ensure that systemic financial risks do not occur. Continuous optimization of economic structure. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has vigorously promoted the supply side structural reform, vigorously optimized the economic structure, effectively improved the quality and efficiency of economic development, and enhanced the stability, sustainability and ability to cope with external shocks.

    First, domestic demand expanded steadily, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth increased significantly. In 2018, China's economic growth rate was 6.6%, of which more than 5% came from the contribution of consumption, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 76.2%. Second, the industrial structure continued to upgrade, and the proportion of the tertiary industry continued to rise. In 2018, the added value of China's tertiary industry accounted for 52.2% of GDP, contributing nearly 60% to economic growth. Third, the spatial structure has been further optimized. After xiong'an new area and Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area, the Yangtze River Delta integration has become a national strategy. The pattern of regional coordinated development based on Urban Agglomeration and metropolitan area has been gradually formed, and the driving force of China's stable economic growth has been further enhanced. There is a large space for reverse cycle regulation. Fiscal policy has considerable policy space. At present, the proportion of central government debt to GDP is still at a low level, and the fiscal deficit rate is less than 3%. At the same time, in recent years, the government's consumption expenditure has been continuously compressed, and the fiscal policy space is being expanded by means of opening up resources and reducing expenditure. Monetary policy also has a large space. China's domestic price level is relatively stable, and the operation of monetary policy is relatively calm.

    Compared with the average level of the international banking industry, the domestic reserve ratio is at a high level, and there is still room for reduction. In addition, we can also use innovative policy tools to fine tune the monetary policy in advance, so as to keep the monetary policy moderately tight and reasonably liquid. The foundation of stable growth is more consolidated. In terms of consumption, with the further optimization and adjustment of China's economic development and income distribution pattern, the middle-income group continues to expand; the service industry is further opened up, the quality of service industry is rapidly improved, and the consumption of service industry is growing rapidly; the multi-level social security system covering urban and rural residents is basically established, and the level of social security is constantly improving, and China's huge consumption potential is effectively released. In terms of investment, with the increase of investment in poverty alleviation, reconstruction of old urban communities, infrastructure construction related to the development of urban agglomerations, and the integrity construction of industrial chain innovation chain, as well as the further improvement of market opening and the level of government social capital cooperation (PPP), positive progress has been made in stabilizing investment. In terms of foreign demand, in the face of the challenges brought by the sluggish growth of world trade, the rise of unilateralism and protectionism, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have introduced a series of policies and measures in large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction, further improving the level of trade facilitation, continuing to accelerate the construction of the pilot Free Trade Zone, and supporting enterprises to develop diversified markets, which have brought benefits to foreign trade enterprises and promoted foreign demand The stability of the field.

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