The domestic calcium carbide market continued to rebound

"Under the stimulation of many favorable factors such as the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of electricity price, the operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises has risen significantly in the near future, and the average operating rate of the industry has exceeded 45%. The operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises in Inner Mongolia has increased to more than 65%, and more enterprises are or are ready to resume operation. " Recently, Zhang Yu, President of China calcium carbide industry association, was very pleased with the changes in the industry. He said that since November last year, in order to ease the sales pressure of electric power enterprises, reduce the cost of calcium carbide enterprises, and stimulate economic growth, western provinces have successively lowered the electricity price of calcium carbide and other industries, with a range of 0.06-0.08 yuan / kWh, which is equivalent to reducing the cost of calcium carbide enterprises by 210-280 yuan. Some provinces also give certain tax relief and transportation preference to enterprises such as calcium carbide, which arouses the enthusiasm of production of calcium carbide enterprises.

In addition, with the real implementation of the credit loosening policy, some plastic processing enterprises, after obtaining bank loans, took advantage of the favorable opportunity that PVC price was at a historical low point, entered the market one after another to prepare materials, digested the inventory of PVC enterprises, the price of PVC by CALCIUM carbide method rebounded rapidly from 5500 yuan to 6200 yuan, and promoted the average operating rate of PVC industry to increase by about 20 percentage points. The unit load of Shaanxi Jintai, Xinjiang Tianye, Ningxia yinglite, Tianjin Dagu chemical, Zhongyan Jilantai and other small enterprises has even increased to more than 80%. Zhang Yu told reporters that PVC enterprises reduced inventory and increased operating rate, expanding the demand for Calcium Carbide, boosting the price of calcium carbide. At present, the factory price in Ningxia is generally around 2700 yuan; that in Qinghai is about 2550 yuan, that in Northern Shaanxi is 2650 yuan, that in Inner Mongolia is about 2750-2800 yuan, which is 100-150 yuan higher than that in early December 2008, and the sales are relatively smooth. The supply of calcium carbide in Tianjin, Shandong and other places is even tight. "With the loosening of credit policy and the gradual implementation of domestic demand policy, the demand for PVC will continue to increase slowly, and the enterprise operating rate will further improve. Before and after the Spring Festival, the Calcium Carbide market will still maintain a rebound trend. The operating rate of the calcium carbide industry is expected to rise to about 60%, and the operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other places may even return to more than 75%. " Zhang Yu is full of confidence in the recent trend of calcium carbide market.

However, the medium and long-term trend of calcium carbide market is still not optimistic. Many business leaders said in an interview that although the calcium carbide market still has room to rebound in the short term, the medium and long term trend is still sluggish. First, with the expansion and spread of the impact of the financial crisis, the bankrupt and bankrupt plastic processing enterprises will continue to increase, the demand for plastic raw materials including PVC will continue to shrink, which will restrain the increase of PVC enterprises' operating rate and pose a heavy pressure on the strength of the calcium carbide Market. Second, the recent rebound of the calcium carbide market is mainly due to the stimulation of favorable policies, but the product price and market trend are ultimately determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Affected by the downturn in real estate and construction industry, the demand for plastic products is difficult to effectively enlarge at least in the first half of this year, and PVC market is difficult to change the downturn. The consumption of calcium carbide in PVC accounts for 90% of the total consumption of calcium carbide. The weak demand for PVC makes it difficult to increase the demand and consumption of calcium carbide. It is inevitable that the market will maintain a downturn in the medium and long term. Sun Wanjun, vice president of China Carbide Industry Association and general manager of Qinghai Dongsheng Chemical Co., Ltd., believes that in addition to the above factors, there are three major factors restricting the medium and long-term trend of carbide market.

First of all, the anti-dumping measures of the Ministry of Commerce of the people's Republic of China against PVC imports from the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia and Taiwan of China have ended. Without high tariff constraints, foreign PVC will take the opportunity to enter the Chinese market and suppress the domestic PVC price. The entire chlor alkali industry may suffer the same heavy damage as 2001-2002, and then reduce the demand for calcium carbide, which will drag down the calcium carbide market. Secondly, even though foreign PVC did not enter the Chinese market in a large scale, since 2006, the vast majority of new PVC projects in China have built calcium carbide devices, with little demand for commercial calcium carbide. However, the continuous contraction of downstream demand makes the market share gradually focus on large-scale, advanced technology, complete supporting facilities, low energy consumption, cost of ownership and price advantages of large-scale new chlor alkali enterprises, which will also reduce the demand for commodity calcium carbide. Finally, the sharp drop of international oil price has driven and will continue to drive the price of ethylene and vinyl chloride monomer to fall or remain low, which makes the original cost advantage and price advantage of PVC by carbide process shrink or even completely lose. At present, several domestic PVC enterprises are changing their carbide process to ethylene process, and the share of domestic ethylene process PVC is expected to rise for the first time this year when it has been declining for several years. The negative impact of this change in PVC industrial structure on calcium carbide Market and enterprises cannot be underestimated. Therefore, sun Wanjun believes: in the short term, the market will continue to rebound around the Spring Festival, but the long-term trend is not optimistic.