What is the impact of the epidemic on the coal market?

The reporter recently learned from China coal transportation and marketing association that in the short term, the development of epidemic situation and strict prevention and control measures have a great impact on coal production, transportation and demand. Some coal mines are difficult to return to work and production according to the original plan, and the road transportation is blocked, which affects the coal supply to a certain extent. At the same time, the inventory of the downstream coal enterprises is reduced, some coking enterprises are passively limiting production, and the power plant is mainly to protect the people's livelihood. The later market faces the risk of shortage of raw material supply. In addition to the normal production of some mines of national energy group, Tongmei group, Shaanxi coal group and other enterprises, the mines of Shanxi Coking Coal Group, Longmei group, Shandong energy group and other enterprises generally shut down for maintenance for 3 to 7 days after the resumption of production of large state-owned mines in succession.

Only the coal inventory to ensure normal shipment is reserved. At present, the state-owned coal enterprises are responding to the call to fully support and speed up the resumption of coal mine production while doing well in the prevention and control of their own epidemic situation, but it will take time for local coal mines and private enterprises to reach the production capacity and achieve the effect. As of February 7, 70 coal enterprises in Shanxi Province have entered the normal production state, and 12 coal enterprises are preparing to return to work. As of February 6, Shaanxi Province has recovered 46 coal mines with a production capacity of 278 million tons / year. As of February 6, 50 coal mines in Ordos, Inner Mongolia have resumed production with a total capacity of 299 million tons / year. All 41 coal mines of Shandong energy group in Shandong Province have been restored to production, and the coal mines of Jizhong energy group have been basically restored to production. From the current situation, the state-owned large mines arrange maintenance during the Spring Festival, but the maintenance time is relatively short. At present, most of the mines have returned to normal production, which is the main force to ensure stable economic operation and stable supply of coal. Affected by the epidemic situation, local coal mines are delayed to return to work and production, and the resource supply is expected to be relatively tight in the short term. The power plant is facing downward pressure of inventory.

During the Spring Festival when the demand of some downstream users weakens, the main domestic coking, steel and power enterprises maintain production. Affected by the epidemic, the inventory of power plants in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi and other places decreased rapidly, resulting in a tense coal supply situation, and sent letters to the surrounding key coal mines to ask for guaranteed supply. According to the preliminary analysis, the main reason for the tension is that some coal consuming enterprises are too optimistic about the coal supply situation this year. Before this year, they deliberately reduced the purchase volume, delayed signing or even did not sign coal medium and long-term contracts, making the coal reserves of the enterprises insufficient. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation, the automobile transportation in Yulin and other areas of Shaanxi Province is blocked, the transportation efficiency is reduced, and the local coal mine shutdown time is extended, which makes the planning and arrangement of some power plants and steel plants fail, resulting in coal shortage. In addition, affected by the epidemic, various provinces and cities have delayed the resumption of work of enterprises, which has a great impact on the production and procurement of steel, chemical and other industries in the downstream of coal. Some downstream users are facing the pressure of load reduction production, resulting in reduced demand. With the increase of the operation rate of epidemic materials, it is expected that the demand for electricity in the power industry will rise to a certain extent. If the epidemic situation is effectively controlled in the short term, all walks of life will resume production after accumulating long-term demand.

The power industry is likely to face the situation of centralized demand outbreak and sharp decline in coal inventory in the short term. As of February 9, the daily coal consumption of six coastal power groups totaled 378000 tons, with a total inventory of 16.621 million tons and 43.9 days available for coal storage. The limited import of coal is affected by the epidemic situation. Some local governments regulate the flow of personnel and vehicles in different degrees, which results in the impact on the road transportation of coal and the collection and distribution of railway coal sources. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, Yiqi, Dongsheng and other areas are in the state of epidemic prevention and closure. RONGTONG, dachengxi, jigustai, tuoxian Jiahe four coal logistics parks are temporarily closed, and all large vehicles are prohibited. According to the statistics of China coal market network, as of February 8, the daily sales volume of coal highway in Ordos region remained at about 350000 tons, which was about 500000 tons less than the same period of previous years. The limited road transportation of coal aggravates the tense situation of coal supply in some areas, and the decrease of vehicles also accelerates the rise of automobile transportation price. Affected by the fact that some coal generating stations in the upstream have not been officially started and the demand in the downstream is low, the short-term domestic trade and e-commerce shipping activities will be difficult to recover, and it is expected that the port transfer in will remain at a low level. Take Qinhuangdao port as an example. From January 24 to February 6, Qinhuangdao's daily average inflow was 420000 tons, and its daily average throughput was 440000 tons, down 16% and 15% respectively compared with the same period of last year's lunar calendar.

Recently, the daily transportation volume of the Datong Qinhuangdao line has been maintained at a low level of 800000 to 1 million tons. In addition, since 00:00 on January 28th, Beijing Tang port has stopped the port of gathering and transportation. Affected by this, the main ports in the north coal inventory decreased. As of February 7, the inventory of the three northern ports was 11.16 million tons, down 1.56 million tons on a month on week basis, down 12.2%, of which the total inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.79 million tons, down 5.05 million tons on a week-on-week basis, down 11.46%. In addition, affected by the epidemic, international coal market transactions decreased, and some cargo ships originally planned to export to China also turned to other countries. Indonesia and Australia have introduced corresponding measures, ships from China to Australia will be quarantined for 14 days, and Indonesia will have to apply for medical examination. Due to the insufficient number of medium and long-term contracts signed for domestic coal, some power users increased the purchase of goods shipped in March. In the short term, it is difficult for imported coal to effectively supplement the supply-demand contradiction highlighted by the current logistics impact.