The main raw materials of epoxy resin are bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin. The rise and fall of its price will directly affect the cost and profit of epoxy resin. From 2019 to 2020, the annual average production cost of epoxy resin in China changes frequently. In the first half of 2019, the theoretical average profit value is 2030 yuan / ton. In the first half of 2020, the profit value of epoxy resin industry is rich, and the theoretical average profit value is 3431 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 69.01%.
From January to February 2020, although affected by the domestic epidemic situation, the impact of various chemical products is more serious, but the market of dual raw materials is strong, the price of epoxy resin is high, and the theoretical profit value in the middle and late February is as high as 5000 yuan / ton. However, due to the replenishment of all factories before the Spring Festival, they are in conflict with high price raw materials, and the market shows that there are no market coatings online. From March to may, affected by the external environment, raw materials continued to fluctuate and adjust, and the cost pressure was eased. However, due to the slow recovery of downstream wind power industry and other application fields, epoxy resin first fell and then rose.
In June, the high level of raw materials fell, the cost transfer was not smooth, and the demand follow-up was insufficient, which led to a rational correction after the rise of epoxy resin. The theoretical average profit value in June was 2367 yuan / ton. In the first half of 2020, the output of epoxy resin increased significantly, and the domestic output of epoxy resin in the first half of 2020 was 636800 tons, an increase of 69800 tons compared with the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of 12.31%. In January 2020, due to the downstream stock preparation before the Spring Festival and the industry's optimistic expectation for the future market, the starting load of epoxy resin remained at a high level, with the output of 113000 tons.
In March, due to the impact of public health events, due to the limitation of road transportation and the delay in resuming work, the speed of picking up goods by downstream factories slowed down, the manufacturers' inventory was high, and some units were forced to reduce the load. In February, the supply of epoxy resin decreased by 19200 tons.
In May, although the public health events continued and the overall chemical market was in a downturn, driven by the rush to install wind power, the epoxy resin plant received better orders, and several large liquid resin factories started operation at a medium and high level, with an average monthly output of 117300 tons, which was also the highest output in the first half of 2020. In June, due to the decline of dual raw materials and multi-stage replenishment demand in the downstream, the supply and shipment were under pressure, and the production enthusiasm was difficult to improve.
Nantong Xingchen, Kunshan Guodu, Changshu Changchun and other factories all planned to shut down. One line of Changshu Changchun was overhauled for four weeks. Therefore, the supply of epoxy resin in that month decreased by 19200 tons compared with that in May, a year-on-year decrease of 16.37%. In 2020, the import volume of epoxy resin increased by 3.53% year-on-year. According to the statistics of customs, the import volume of epoxy resin in 2019 will reach 288767.28 tons, with an average monthly import volume of 24063.94 tons. From January to may 2020, the import volume of epoxy resin will reach 124568.02 tons, with an average monthly import volume of 24913.60 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.53%. Although the epidemic situation had a great impact during the period, due to the support of cost, the slow increase of work load of major liquid resin factories, and the optimistic demand of downstream wind power industry, the spot supply of each factory was tight.
As China's first consumer country, the import volume was in an increasing state. According to statistics, in the second half of 2020, China's epoxy resin industry is expected to add 5 sets of units, with a total capacity of 365000 tons / year. By then, Jiangzhe Haobang will be the largest single unit in China, accounting for about 10% of the domestic market, which can not only meet the needs of the domestic market, but also replace imports to a large extent. Raw material: the raw material trend of bisphenol A in the second half of the year will not be satisfactory, and the domestic bisphenol a supply pressure will not be reduced. After the bisphenol a plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is put into operation, the price will be suppressed during the export period, but the hidden danger will be eliminated after the PC is put into operation.
Moreover, the other two sets of PC units are good for the BPA industry, and BPA may have a chance to improve. Epichlorohydrin, another raw material, is hardly optimistic. In the first half of the year, Jiangsu Haixing 130000 T / a plant, which has been in a long-term shutdown state, was put on the market in early June. In addition, in the second half of the year, the 50000 T / a glycerol process plant of Shandong Minji and the 40000 t / a glycerol process plant of Zhejiang Zhenyang were completed and put into operation successively in July and August. The supply of epichlorohydrin is expected to increase, and the production capacity is expected to increase by 220000 tons in 2019. Supply side: the maintenance of epoxy resin plant is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and no maintenance has been heard after July. The plant operating rate is expected to run smoothly, and the new plants are gradually completed and put into operation, resulting in increased supply. However, domestic high-quality epoxy resin will still rely on imports, and the import volume will remain at about 150000 tons in the second half of the year.
Demand side: as the global public health events continue, the downstream demand side of epoxy resin slowly recovers, and the demand for coatings, electronics, and adhesives does not increase significantly. Although the wind power market demand in the second half of the year is good, it is difficult to drive the whole downstream demand side. Therefore, the demand side will determine one of the important factors of epoxy resin market trend. To sum up, the trend of raw materials in the second half of 2020 is not optimistic, and in the case of poor performance on the demand side, the market of epoxy resin may be weak, but during this period, suppliers should also find opportunities to push up. The completion and commissioning of the following new units will have a certain impact on domestic epoxy resin, and the industry competition will become increasingly fierce. Therefore, the domestic epoxy resin market pressure and risk coexist in the second half of the year.
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