Ethylene glycol market will continue to decline weakly under negative pressure

Since October 2018, the domestic ethylene glycol market has fallen steadily, from 8000 yuan (ton price, the same below) to about 4300 yuan. For the future market, the author believes that the downstream terminal demand has not improved, coupled with East China port inventory is still at a historic high, short-term ethylene glycol market is difficult to be optimistic.

Start-up rate maintained a high level. This year, the start-up rate of ethylene glycol plant in China has remained relatively high. Although the Spring Festival holidays occurred during this period, the start-up rate of ethylene glycol plant did not have much impact. At the end of April, the ethylene glycol plant was overhauled centrally, and mainly coal-based equipment. As of April 26, the weekly start-up rate of ethylene glycol plant was 81.59%, which was 0.97 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and 5.59 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. As of April 30, the weekly start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant was 55.01%, which was 5.35 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, with a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points. In May, the ethylene glycol overhaul plant was restarted one after another, and the market supply was expected to increase.

The downstream market is not in peak season. In the past years, downstream polyester chips, polyester staple fibers, polyester filaments and other industries of ethylene glycol are in the traditional peak season, but the current trading situation has not significantly warmed up, and the market continues to run in a weak position. From the situation of May 10, the market prices of polyester chips, polyester staple fibers and polyester filaments all fell compared with last week, and the circumferential ratio fell by about 1%, 1.85% and 2.37% respectively. At the same time, the load rate of polyester chips, polyester staple fibers and polyester filament devices also decreased slightly, which were about 0.53%, 0.82% and 0.79% respectively. It is difficult for downstream industries to increase the demand for ethylene glycol. Port inventories have repeatedly reached new heights. Since the beginning of the year, the ethylene glycol inventory of ports in East China has risen rapidly. On February 11, after the Spring Festival holiday, it exceeded 1 million tons, reaching 1.02 million tons, surpassing last year's inventory peak. After that, inventory continued to accumulate and reached a peak of 1282,000 tons on April 11, an increase of 497,000 tons over the beginning of the year. As of early May, the inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China was 1.177 million tons, still at a high level in recent two years. In conclusion, although the market of polyester chips is in the traditional peak season, the terminal demand has not improved. Later, polyester enterprises may take the initiative to reduce the start-up rate to cope with the pressure of rising inventory. The short-term Ethylene Glycol market is expected to remain weak under negative pressure.