From the production point of view, why is the power coal weak?

This week, the domestic power coal market as a whole maintained a downward trend. Prices of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, the main producing areas, continue to fall by 10-20 CNY/ton. Weak downstream demand has put pressure on the price of pithead coal. Considering the restriction of coal transportation and the influence of safety inspection, the price decline in the later period may be narrowed. In northern ports, low-calorie and low-sulfur coal has a large number of inquiries downstream, and some traders are in a mood of waiting to rise. At present, the market coal turnover is small and the buyers and sellers are at a standstill stage. The mainstream price of Q5500 is 595-600 CNY/ton, and the mainstream price of Q5000 is about 510 CNY/ton. On the downstream side, the purchase price of electricity and coal for power plants in Shandong has been stable as a whole, and the available stock of power plants in Shandong has been around 20 days. On the whole, the purchase price of Shandong main power plants in June was stable as a whole, and the purchase price was concentrated at 0.102-0.110 yuan per card. At present, coal consumption in downstream power plants remains low and inventory is high, and the willingness of end users to purchase coal in the market is declining, although coal prices are facing downward pressure from the demand side. However, supported by cost and other factors, the willingness of northern port traders to continue to reduce prices has been reduced. Whether prices can rebound still needs to pay more attention to the coal consumption of power plants.

Inner Mongolia: This week, the power coal market in the Ordos region of Inner Mongolia continued its steady downward trend. On the one hand, due to the restriction of environmental protection inspection, some coal yards in Xinjie, Yijinholuo Banner, Inner Mongolia have been closed. The coal purchased by Xinjie coal yard mainly comes from Erlin Rabbit, Hongqinghe, Yidong and other coal mines, which has increased the sales pressure of some surrounding coal mines. On the other hand, Inner Mongolia has recently listed overload and overrun behavior as the key target of combating blacks and eliminating evil. It has strengthened the control of overload and overrun of coal transportation, limited coal transportation, rapid increase of inventory in some coal mines, and downward price pressure. In addition, from May 30 to June 30, 2019, the Ordos Energy Bureau will carry out centralized rectification and supervision of coal mining and transportation disorders, carry out key supervision and secret visits to coal mines and road stations with serious disorders and contradictions, issue rectification notices and register the problems found by the supervision, carry out time-limited marketing number management, and urge the rectification and implementation.  

Shanxi: This week, the overall power coal market in Shanxi has been slightly declining. Coal mines in northern Shanxi are affected by the downward price of coal in northern ports. Intermediate traders are less active in purchasing coal. The pressure of coal mine sales is greater, and the price is reduced by 5-10 CNY/ton. Local platform inventory is generally low, due to the high cost of arrival at the port, the enthusiasm of coal mines and traders is not high, the Daqin Line shipment volume dropped to 1.2 million tons. S

haanxi: The price of power coal in Yulin, Shaanxi, fell slightly this week. Among them, the coal price in Yuyang District is relatively stable, Shenmu City is dominated by the decline in the price of final coal, while the lump coal price has not been adjusted for the time being. Some coal mines have weak downstream purchasing demand and high sales pressure. Since June 1, a large coal enterprise in Shenmu area has floated 23 CNY/ton, or 460-461 CNY/ton, on the basis of the current online trading winning price. As of May 29, there were 88 coal mines in Yulin and 167 coal mines were shut down. Yuyang produces 18 coal mines with a capacity of 78.9 million tons; Hengshan produces 6 coal mines with a capacity of 6.9 million tons; Shenmu produces 44 coal mines with a capacity of 215.5 million tons; Fugu produces 20 coal mines with a capacity of 29.6 million tons. Considering the low start-up rate of coal mines and the stringent restrictions on coal production capacity, it is expected that the decline in coal prices will be limited in the later period. Shandong Province: Coal prices of mining enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable operation this week, but the overall output is still low. The purchasing price of coal for power plants in Shandong has been stable as a whole, and the available stock of power plants in Shandong has been around 20 days.

Overall, in June, the purchase price of Shandong's main power plants was stable as a whole. The purchase price was concentrated at 0.102-0.110 yuan per card. There was a big gap in the purchase price of enterprises'own power plants, with fluctuations ranging from 0.001 to 0.002 yuan per card. Generally speaking, due to the high overall inventory of downstream power plants and relatively low daily consumption, in the case of weak demand, the weak and stable operation of the power coal market still does not rule out the possibility of small price reduction. Eastern China: Ports in eastern China have been affected by weak downstream demand and continued downward price cuts in northern ports. Prices have continued to decline since mid-May. Taking Ningbo Port as an example, the current mainstream price of 5500 cards of domestic trade coal is 643 CNY/ton, which is 8 CNY/ton lower than 651 CNY/ton in the same period last week, 553 CNY/ton for 5000 cards, and 6 CNY/ton lower than 559 CNY/ton in the same period last week.

At present, the daily consumption of downstream power plants is low and the stock is high. Changxie coal is the main purchasing power coal, and the purchasing power coal is less in the market. Under the background of weak demand, the power coal price of East China Port will continue to decline under pressure. Southwest China: Hydropower and other clean energy sources in Southwest China generate power, and the overall start-up rate of thermal power plants is low. It is understood that the inventory of power plants in Sichuan maintains a high level and the daily consumption is low. The coal stock of a local thermal power plant is 500,000 tons and the usable days are 4-5 months. At the same time, the starting rate of local thermal power plants has been reduced to about 30%, and even some power plants have indicated that there is a near-term shutdown plan. The output of local coal enterprises in Southwest China is low, while some long-term coal demand is guaranteed, and the price of power coal remains stable temporarily. On the whole, thermal power in Southwest China is seriously squeezed by clean energy such as hydropower, power coal demand is weak, and power coal market is showing a weak trend. ...