The price of polyether industry chain is rising, and the price of chemical fiber

Investment points

China Chemicals Price Index (CCPI): This week, the CCPI increased 0.8% from last week, fell 3.5% from the same period last month, and rose 2.4% from the same period last year.The products with a larger increase this week: Propane (Shandong), 24.4%; Butane (East China Frozen CFR), 22.8%; Coke (Hebei), 16.7%; US LPG, 15.0%; Ethane (MB), 13.5%.Products that have fallen sharply this week: n-butanol (East China), -19.8%; Butadiene (East China), -14.2%; Isooctyl alcohol (East China), -12.5%; Butanone (East China), -12.5% ; PTMEG (2000, East China), -10.1%.Recent viewsPolyurethane: Overseas, the MDI installations of Covestro (320,000 tons) and Dow Chemical (340,000 tons) in North America are still force majeure.

According to Longzhong Information, the Wanhua Ningbo (800,000 tons) plant is still under maintenance this week, and the follow-up Chongqing BASF (400,000 tons) is expected to be overhauled in February. MDI supply is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream MDI is currently in the off-season, but downstream refrigerators and freezers and other areas are supported by overseas orders, and demand continues to be strong. Therefore, compared with previous off-seasons, the current MDI price has fallen slightly, and the price is still in the historically more prosperous position. The newly commissioned production capacity since 2018 has basically been gradually digested by the new demand.

In the short term, the new production capacity will mainly come from Wanhua Chemical. It is expected that there will be more orderly launches, and the tight balance of MDI supply and demand is expected to be maintained. On the whole, with the orderly release of new capacity on the supply side, the demand side will continue to improve with the global economic recovery and strong policy stimulus. The probability of maintaining high MDI prices is relatively high, and when the subsequent peak season comes, the market The price may increase further. We strongly recommend Wanhua Chemical.Coal chemical industry: Urea prices are expected to rise under the support of domestic agricultural urea, industrial urea and export urea demand.

In addition, the price difference between methanol and ethylene glycol is at the bottom of history. From the perspective of industry operation laws, product prices and industry average profitability will be gradually restored. The current downstream domestic and overseas demand is under repair. Some coal chemical products methanol, acetic acid, and Adipic Acid-raw material price differences are located at 14.7%, 32.0% and 8.6% of the historical quantile, compared with the previous historical quantile of about 5%. As a result, the recovery logic of the bottom of the industry's profitability is gradually verified. Highly recommend the leading domestic coal chemical company Hualu Hengsheng.Pesticides: This week, Zhongnong Lihua technical price index continued to rise to 100.21 points, a continuous increase of 0.3% on a week-on-month basis and a 2.9% month-on-month increase. Pesticide companies have further widened gaps in cost control, product layout, technical strength, and integrated layout. Pesticide product pattern differentiation: focus on pyrethroids, innovative drugs (etazole, chlorantraniliprole, chlorantraniliprole, etc.), glufosinate-AMMONIUM, etc.Recently, EPA passed the key registration of dicamba, and Syngenta Group plans to become the controlling shareholder of Yangnong Chemical, which is expected to accelerate growth.

The key recommendation is Yangnong Chemical, Lianhua Technology, Lier Chemical, and Guangxin.Risk warning: the risk that the demand for chemical products does not meet expectations, the risk of a sharp drop in international oil prices, the risk of poor environmental protection implementation.