PX market recent performance analysis

First, PXN, PX-M repairv

PX, whether poorly processed with naphtha or MX, bounced off the bottom and slowly repaired.

Second, PX spot floating price rises

At the beginning of November, I heard that there was an offer of -5 usd to -6 USD in spot floating, but the downstream was not willing to receive the goods, so I did not hear the counter-offer.

This week to hear spot buying -2 USD near, you can see that the market gradually turn strong buying.

Third, the market structure into backwardation

In the two consecutive months of PX mining price, in early November, the distant month premium was 3 USD, and then the near month premium changed to 0.5 USD. After the change of month on 16th, the near month and the distant month changed to flat water.

Cause analysis:

Supply side load reduction:

Starting from November, the load at home and abroad is generally reduced;

Production cuts in South Korea resulted in an average load drop of 5-7 points;

Taiwan production cut led to a small reduction in load;

Outages or production cuts in India resulted in an average load drop of 13.08 points;

Plant failure or prolonged downtime in Japan;

Shutdowns or production cuts in China resulted in an average 6.19 points reduction in PX loads.

Improvement of demand side:

In September and October, the average PTA load is around 75%. At present, the PTA plants of Shenghong, Tongkun, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Nengtou have been put into production, normal operation or will soon be put into production, which supports the spot demand for PX to a certain extent.

Looking ahead:

Recently, naphtha market in Europe is depressed, and it has begun to arbitrage to Asia. Aromatics products have weak support and have begun to weaken. In addition, PX enterprises with poor profits and reduced load have not heard about the resumption of PX processing fees in the short term. However, the potential uncertainty is that Zhejiang Petrochemical has now run three PX units, and the fourth unit will soon start operation, which has a large potential downside. However, in the short term, PXN can still be repaired, and because there are no new units in the first half of next year, and there are many maintenance units, the downside of PX market is very limited.