Market Analysis - Monthly Report - June, 2021- Hot Products
Ethylene Glycol (EG)
The market is expected to maintain wide range fluctuation under the current situation of strong raw materials, squeeze of profit and low inventory. The trend is affected by crude oil fluctuation. The pressure on the long-term supply end is becoming more and more obvious, and the market trend is still weak.
In July, the downstream unsaturated resin market is stable and oscillating, but the domestic price is high, more cautious mindset, the demand side just follow up. Part of the export recovery, is expected to continue the trend of last month. The supply side of Zhejiang Iron and Steel Dafeng stock maintenance plan, the supply side is good. On the raw material side, PO is expected to be in stock at the beginning of the month, and it is expected that the domestic propylene glycol market is expected to run at a high level, so we will continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material PO and the field. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material PO and the dynamic situation in the field.
Although most acetic acid plants have no inventory pressure, the restart of Henan Longyuin July and the commissioning of Huayi Guangxi plant have obvious impact on themarket. In addition, the profit of downstream is far less than that of upstreamacetic acid, users have strong resistance, and most of them think that there isstill a large downward space in the later stage, so the willingness to receivegoods is not high, the contradiction between supply and demand is moreprominent in the short term, and the market is expected to decline greatly.However, the inventory of downstream raw materials is not high, so we need tofocus on when the acetic acid price reaches the psychological price ofdownstream customers.
After the market, isopropyl alcohol market or weak oscillation is dominant. Cost side, because the acetone market is at a low level, the late field good support is limited. Acetone market is difficult to have more room for improvement, the possibility of maintaining a low level of oscillation is greater. Propylene is relatively limited in price fluctuations, so it is difficult to give effective support on the cost side. From the supply side, due to the increasing loss of propylene, a plant in northeast China has a plan to reduce the negative, some propylene plants continue to stop. In the acetone plant, a plant in Shandong has postponed the start-up plan, and the overall start-up is low, the supply side has a tightening trend. Demand side, downstream demand continues to be in a light situation, the terminal plants due to environmental issues to limit production or shutdown, the overall demand is relatively weak. Therefore, a comprehensive view of the next month isopropyl alcohol market favorable support is very limited, need to focus on the operation of the device and the mentality of the industry.
In the short term, the downstream demand of Ethanol is still dominated by rigid demand procurement, with limited positive support. Affected by major festivals, local high-speed or limited traffic may occur, and the shipment in some regions may not be smooth. The contradiction between supply and demand still exists. It is expected that the domestic ethanol market will be weak next month.
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