Analysis of the market situation and development trend of petrochemical industry
In recent years, China's petrochemical industry has maintained a steady gross production, stable market supply and demand, better growth of major economic indicators than expected, and better overall performance of the industry. Specifically, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of crude oil and natural gas in 2018 was 334 million tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 2.4% over the previous year. Among them, crude oil production was 189 million tons, down by 1.2%; natural gas production (CBM, the same below) was 161.02 billion cubic meters, up by 7.5%; liquefied natural gas production was 900.2 million tons, down by 0.9%.
In 2018, the total output of major chemical products increased by 2.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the total output of chemical fertilizer (converted to pure) was 54.596 million tons, down by 5.2%; the output of sulphuric acid was 86.364 million tons, up by 1.8%; the output of caustic soda was 34.220 million tons, up by 0.9%; the output of ethylene was 18.410 million tons, up by 1.0%; the output of pure benzene was 8.276 million tons, up by 47.56 million tons of methanol, up by 29%; the total output of synthetic materials was 158 million tons, up by 7.5%; the output of tyres was 816 million, up by 10%. At the end of 2018, 27813 Enterprises above the scale of petroleum and chemical industries had increased by 4.6% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points over the previous year; the main business income was 12.4 trillion yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year; the total profit was 83.93.8 billion yuan, up 32.1% year-on-year, accounting for 12.1% and 12.7% of the total revenue and profit of large-scale industries in China, respectively.
Among them, 286 Enterprises above the scale of petroleum and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 5.0% and 5.5 percentage points over the same period of last year; their main income was 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.3%, and their total profit was 1598 billion yuan, an increase of 587.2%. There are 1210 Enterprises above the scale of petroleum processing industry, with a cumulative value-added growth of 6.4%, 0.3 percentage points faster than the previous year; the main revenue of 3.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.5%; and the total profit of 169.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4%. There are 24 821 Enterprises above the scale of chemical industry, with a cumulative increase of 3.6% in added value, which is the same as the previous year; the main business income is 7.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the previous year; the total profit is 500.65 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%.
The loss situation of petrochemical industry has also been improved continuously with the increase of income and profit. The data show that in 2018, the loss of loss-making enterprises in the whole industry was 116.23 billion yuan, down 36.9% from the same period last year. Among them, the oil and gas exploitation industry declined 63.0%, and the chemical industry declined 14.4%. The loss of the whole industry was 16.7%, which was 2.0 percentage points smaller than that in the first half of the year. In addition, with the steady progress of supply-side reform, the asset-liability ratio of petrochemical industry continued to decline. In 2018, the asset-liability ratio of the petrochemical industry was 54.56%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the asset-liability ratio of oil and gas exploitation industry was 42.78%, down 4.06 percentage points from the same period last year; the asset-liability ratio of oil processing industry was 60.73%, down 0.02 percentage points from the same period last year; and the asset-liability ratio of chemical industry was 55.85%, down 1.33 percentage points from the same period last year. Finally, in terms of exports, in 2018, the export value of petrochemical industry was better than expected, with export delivery value of 701.87 billion yuan last year, an increase of 22.0% over the same period last year. Among them, the export delivery value of special chemicals, synthetic materials and organic chemical raw material manufacturing increased significantly, increasing by 19.7%, 17.2% and 21.6% respectively, which was significantly higher than the average growth rate of chemical industry, accounting for 19.7%, 16.7% and 12.7% of the export delivery value of chemical industry.
The future development of the industry is towards "four modernizations"
Firstly, diversification of raw materials. China's petroleum reserves are limited and its dependence on petroleum is high. Petrochemical industry can not rely on naphtha for chemical production. It is necessary to broaden the channels of raw materials. At present, the rapid development of coal chemical industry may become another important branch in the process of diversification of petrochemical raw materials in China.
Secondly, product demand differentiation. In order to meet the increasing needs of people's living standards, the downstream products of petrochemical industry will develop towards functionalization, refinement and differentiation.
Thirdly, green low-carbon. In the Guidelines on Promoting the Green Development of Petrochemical Industry, it is clearly required to implement cleaner production transformation. From basic design to production and operation stage, the whole process promotes the continuous upgrading and progress of technology, technology and equipment, strengthens enterprise lean management, reduces the generation of three wastes from the source, and realizes the transformation from end-treatment to source emission reduction.
Finally, industry intellectualization. At present, China is using the existing financial channels to support the intelligent transformation of chemical industry parks, constantly improving the infrastructure and public service level of chemical industry parks, and enhancing the relocation capacity of chemical industry parks to hazardous chemicals production enterprises.
The above data come from the Foresight Industry Research Institute's "PetroChina (7.640, 0.00, 0.00%) Chemical Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report".
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