Data analysis of butadiene import and export in China in 2021

In December 2021, China's butadiene imports were 24,700 tons, down 23.89% from the previous month and basically stable compared to December 2020. As of December 2021, China's annual imports of butadiene reached 248,000 tons, down 45.52 percent from 2020. In December 2021, China's butadiene export volume was 0 tons. By December 2021, China's annual butadiene export volume reached 154,300 tons, a significant increase of 618.4% compared to 2020.

1, import volume decreased, import dependence gradually reduced

Despite the impact of public health events, China's butadiene imports hit a record high of 455,300 tons in 2020, but the total volume of imports fell sharply in 2021. As the domestic butadiene production capacity continues to increase, the product self-sufficiency rate is rapidly improving, and the import dependence of butadiene decreases from 10%-15% to 6% in 2021.

2. Change of import source

China's butadiene imports are relatively concentrated, and the imports from these five places account for more than 60% of the annual imports. According to the data trend, on the one hand, the supply of Goods from South Korea has gradually decreased. Boosted by the demand in recent years, some Korean goods have been actively exported to the United States for arbitrage.

Coupled with the improvement of China's self-sufficiency rate, the supply of goods from South Korea has decreased to some extent. But on the other hand, The increase in Imports of Iranian goods is more obvious. In 2021, the annual quantity is about 68,900 tons, accounting for 27.78% of China's total imports of butadiene.

3. Exports hit a record high

In 2021, China exported 154,300 tons of butadiene annually, a record high and a year-on-year increase of more than six times. The main reason is that on the one hand, domestic supply increment, on the other hand, due to the influence of weather reasons, the Demand gap in the American market, the price difference between Europe and the United States and The Asian market widened, stimulating a large number of Asian goods actively export arbitrage.

4, internal and external plate price difference affects the change of import and export pattern

Price difference between inner and outer plate is the main reason affecting the flow of goods. From April to June in 2021, the price of external disks was higher than that of the domestic spot market, and the domestic sources of goods were actively engaged in export arbitrage, affecting the export volume to continue to increase from April and reach the highest point of the year (31,100 tons) in July.

In July and October 2021, the domestic butadiene market experienced two waves of growth, which affected the import increment after September. While the external market started its decline in September, China's butadiene imports returned to relatively high levels in November and December. External spreads fell into negative territory in November-December 2021, and imports are expected to shrink in early 2022.