It will take time for the stable operation of port coal price

Although entering the early winter, the enthusiasm of the downstream hauling is not high, and the coal hauling ships to the port keep low. In terms of port coal price, the price performance of medium and low calorific value coal is relatively high, but there are not many spot coal, the seller is reluctant to sell at a firm price, the inquiry customers have increased, and the support price is stable and rising; while the inquiry demand and shipment of high calorie coal is general, and the coal price is weak and stable. It is expected that the demand of coal market will turn better in the last ten days of next month for the following reasons:

First of all, the accumulated inventory in the early stage is relatively high, which is currently in the consumption inventory stage. After the Spring Festival this year, the inventory of power plants has been on the rise. The inventory of national key power plants increased from 66.33 million tons on March 10 to 98 million tons last week, a straight-line increase of 32.67 million tons; at present, the coal storage days of power plants are up to 28 days. In terms of coastal power plants, since the second half of the year, the consumption of coastal power plants has not kept up with the increase of input, and the coal storage has increased rapidly; at present, the coal storage has increased to 16.88 million tons. In November, at the beginning of winter, the weather in the south of China is relatively warm, and the power plant load is not high; in addition, the high inventory of the port of loading and unloading and the coal storage base needs to be digested and released, so there is no phenomenon that the downstream users send ships to replenish the storage, which naturally cannot drive the coal price to rise substantially. Secondly, there is a lag in restricting the import of coal, and the favorable factors of coal market are not obvious. From the middle of November, China has imposed stricter restrictions on imported coal, but the favorable factors have not been immediately revealed.

At present, it has little impact on the domestic coal market, and some imported coal that has been declared to customs continues to enter the domestic market; in addition, the coal storage in southern Guangzhou, Ningbo and other unloading ports is on the high side, so it needs to be transported downstream. It is not active to promote customers in coastal areas to purchase coal from northern ports. The main way to send ships and transport coal is long-term cooperative coal. The number of delivery of coal in ports around Bohai Sea is limited, the market is not active, and the domestic coal price is not strongly supported. Once again, rigid haulage is dominant and the market coal price is stable. The high inventory of main power plants has covered the first ten days of December. According to the current coal storage and daily consumption of power plants, even if the coal is not transported for two consecutive weeks, the coal storage is sufficient. At present, it has not yet entered the cold winter, and the daily consumption of power plants remains at the middle level. The daily consumption of six coastal power plants increases slowly, maintaining between 620000-650000 tons. Most of the coastal area users rely on high inventory, only for the Bohai Sea port coal storage to maintain rigid haulage. The upstream seller is reluctant to sell at a firm price, while the downstream seller is willing to accept the goods at a lower price. The inquiry is focused on the medium truck coal.

The coal price in 5500 large truck market keeps rising slightly, while the demand for high truck is relatively small and the price is relatively stable. Fourth, the real market tends to be better in the middle and late December. At present, the downstream transportation is mainly based on the implementation of long-term cooperation contracts, and the actual boost at the demand side is limited. Once entering the middle and late December, on the one hand, the downstream users need to actively store coal before the arrival of the two quarters; on the other hand, in the cold winter, the daily consumption of the power plant rises, the number of days available for coal storage decreases, and some small and medium-sized users need to supplement the inventory, so the enthusiasm of hauling will be improved. At that time, the north coal South transportation will be more busy, and the coal price rise will be supported.