Due to many positives, the polyether market has risen broadly. On August 10, the mainstream ex-factory price of polyether soft foam and loose water in Shandong and North China refers to RMB 13,350-13,500/ton, a cumulative increase of RMB 6,600/ton, which is lower than in April. The price has doubled and is about to break the high of early 2018. According to Jinlianchuang's forecast, polyethers have risen to the current high level, the upstream and downstream mentality game has intensified, and the market continues to rise pressure. Recently, a large number of imported POs have arrived in Hong Kong. After customs declaration and shipment, the shortage of PO in the market may ease. It is expected that the growth of PO will weaken, but it is still difficult to fall for a while. Recently, the polyether market has followed the high level of PO. The market outlook needs further guidance from the news.
In the first half of the year, my country's polyether market showed a "roller coaster" market. From the beginning of January to April, my country's domestic polyether market was affected by the new crown epidemic. At the beginning of April, international oil prices plummeted, and various historical low prices continued to appear. Polyether prices followed and bottomed. The lowest ex-factory price of soft foam and loose water in Shandong and North China reached 6,800 yuan/ton, and the prices of individual factories were even lower, down from the beginning of the year. 3350 yuan/ton. In mid-to-late April, with the well-controlled domestic epidemic and the gradual rise in international oil prices, the market economic environment improved, the upstream pull was intensified, and the market started a "shock and rise" model.
From May to June, polyether followed propylene oxide to push up steadily. From July to August, many positives were superimposed, and the market rose accelerated. First, the domestic propylene oxide plant was overhauled in July, and the plant inventory was low. In August, under the support of the polyether plant, the PO inventory remained low, which provided a good foundation for the continued market growth. The second is the overhaul of PO factories in Saudi Arabia and South Korea. In addition to the typhoon season, the supply of propylene oxide imports continues to be tight. Shandong's supply of goods goes south to support East China. The northern market is tight and prices continue to rise. The third is that Wanhua and a large joint venture factory in South China both have capacity expansion plans. The demand for propylene oxide has increased and the tight supply situation has intensified. Fourth, the high-end supply of polyether imports is tight, low-price competition in the market weakens, and the resistance of polyether to follow up weakens. Fifth, domestic polyether factories such as Hangjin Technology, Binhua, DXN Federal, and Novi are overhauled, and a large joint venture factory in South China plans to expand capacity in August. The supply of flexible foam continues to be tight, and the rigid demand for elastomers is good. The new orders from the factory are concentrated, and the market rise continues. Sixth, the time for US anti-dumping in Southeast Asia was postponed by one month, some factories delivered orders ahead of schedule, overseas demand increased, and domestic exports improved. Seventh, the downstream is chasing the high to buy and the amount is lacking. In the early stage, the sentiment of waiting and waiting to fall is heavy. The inventory of polyether is gradually consumed, but the market price does not fall but rises. , The offer continues to follow the PO rise. Eighth, the elastic body rigidly needs support in August.
"However, under the condition that the upstream PO inventory pressure of polyether is low and the import of high-end polyether is still tight, if the market turning point occurs in mid-August, the market may not fall sharply. However, if the market is difficult to open, the market is not lacking. Continue to sort out expectations at a high level, and see if there is a chance to go down near the end of August." Jinlianchuang polyurethane analyst Huang Hui believes.
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