The National Economy Report Card will be unveiled in August

The National Bureau of Statistics will today (16) release a number of macroeconomic data on retail sales of consumer goods, investment in fixed assets and industrial added value above scale in August 2019. What is China's economic trend forecast for August? How will consumption, investment and industry perform? Many points of view deserve attention.

Consumption growth or will rebound

Consumption is one of the "troikas" driving the national economy, and the total retail sales data of social consumer goods have been paid much attention. According to Wind data, a number of agencies expect the total retail sales growth of consumer goods to pick up in August. As of September 15, 14 institutions had made predictions, with an average of 7.9%, the highest being 8.8% of Shen Wanhongyuan's forecast, and the lowest being 7.2% of the National Economic Research Center of Beida. Previous data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in July, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 7.6% year-on-year in nominal terms, down from 9.8% in June. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 8.3% year-on-year, almost the same as that of 8.4% in June.

Regarding the decline of the total retail sales of consumer goods in July, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the main reason for the decline was the change of automobile sales. Liu Aihua mentioned that in June, when the emission standards of five countries and six countries were changed, many manufacturers and dealers took many promotional activities, which stimulated the sales of automobiles in that month. In July, automobile sales fell by 2.6%, from a positive growth rate of 17.2% to a decline of 2.6%, due to the advance of consumption or some overdraft effect. After deducting the impact of automobile retail sales, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.8% in July compared with the same period last year.

In the institutional analysis, the impact of automobile sales changes on July consumption data has also been mentioned many times. For example, Shen Wanhongyuan pointed out that despite the temporary disturbance caused by the concentration of automobile sales in June, the follow-up demand is still strong. In July, other options weakened in a single month, and the initial structural tax reduction measures gradually released the purchasing power of residents. It is expected that the nominal growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods will rise to 8.8% in August. Liu Aihua pointed out that China has a large market of nearly 1.4 billion people and the largest and fastest growing middle-income group in the world. There is no doubt about its potential in consumption. In addition, the new models of sinking market and community e-commerce are gradually rising. Consumption facilities are increasingly perfect and consumption environment is constantly improving. A package of measures to support the platform economy will promote the development of the platform economy and provide sufficient support for consumption in terms of industry and supply. From these points of view, the huge consumption potential is gradually releasing, and consumption has the basis and conditions to maintain stable and rapid growth.

The average forecast value of the growth rate of fixed assets investment is 5.6%

In the aspect of fixed assets investment, the average growth rate of fixed assets investment (excluding peasant households) predicted by 14 institutions in January-August is 5.6%. Among them, CICC, Minsheng Securities and Southwest Securities have given the lowest forecast value of 5.5%, while Shen Wanhongyuan has the highest forecast value of 5.9%.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 348.892 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7% over the same period last year. Wang Baobin, Senior Statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the growth rate of fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.2 percentage points in January-July compared with the same period last year, maintaining a steady growth trend, showing a sustained small recovery in the growth rate of manufacturing investment, a rapid growth in high-tech industry investment and a continued two-fold increase in social investment. The number of growth, infrastructure investment structure continues to optimize and real estate development investment growth rate has a slight drop in characteristics.

Minsheng Securities said that the policy of housing non-speculation will not be shaken and real estate financing will become stricter, but supported by regional economic integration and security investment, real estate investment is still resilient. It is expected that the growth rate of real estate fixed assets investment will continue to fall to 10.2% in August, and the overall growth rate of fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) will be 5.5% in January-August. 。

Guotai Jun'an predicts that real estate investment growth will continue to enter the downward range, infrastructure investment growth will increase steadily, manufacturing investment will still rebound slightly, and the overall growth rate of fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) will slow down to 5.6% in January-August. Zhang Yihua, Sino-New Zealand Longitudinal and Latitudinal Data Map. Compared with the two institutions mentioned above, Zhang Yihua photograph of China-Singapore longitude and latitude gave a higher forecast of the growth rate of fixed assets investment (excluding peasant households) in January-August, reaching 5.8%. Beida National Economic Research Center said that on the one hand, the main line of restructuring and capacity removal remained unchanged, and the investment growth rate of traditional high-energy-consuming industries continued to operate at a low level; on the other hand, with the development of high-tech industries, it played a supporting role in fixed assets investment. At the same time, the economic restructuring needs to improve the supporting infrastructure, and there is still room for the growth of investment in the secondary and tertiary industries.

The national industrial added value above the scale increased by 5.8% from January to July compared with the same period last year, of which the growth rate in July was 4.8%. Jiang Yuan, Senior Statistician of the Industrial Department of the State Statistics Bureau, explained that the industrial production operation from January to July was characterized by stable production, sustained growth in most industries, expanded product growth, rapid growth of high-tech industries, continued rapid growth of new products and rapid growth of private enterprises. Jiangyuan also pointed out that the current industrial production is basically stable, but we should also see that the growth rate of industrial production fell in July and the downward pressure on industrial production increased.